969
FXUS62 KTAE 171907
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
307 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The region will continue to be situated between an upper level ridge
across the western Atlantic and Florida Peninsula, and an upper
level trough across the central US. This will lead to broad
southerly flow across the region and a continuation of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Like today, the greatest rain chances
should be across southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle where
deep-layer moisture content will be higher compared to further east.
However, unlike today, a weak surface trough rounding the upper
level ridge could lift north into the area tomorrow. This could
allow slightly better shower and thunderstorm coverage across the
Florida Big Bend compared to this afternoon, but confidence in this
is somewhat low and even then, chances will not increase much over
this afternoon`s observed chances.

Similar to today, coverage will follow a diurnal pattern and the
mean southerly flow will help activity quickly spread into Alabama
and Georgia by the early afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

On Thursday the CWA will be positioned on the edge of two ridges -
the subtropical high to our east and an approaching ridge to our
west. In addition, a weak trough will be positioned to our north
over the Midwest and moving eastward. PWATs will have recovered
somewhat on Thursday after a brief respite Tuesday/Wednesday,
climbing up to a modest 1.8-1.9" thanks to continued southwesterly
flow.

Still, large scale subsidence will be prominent as both ridges
influence the region. A subtle shortwave looks to shoot
northeastward from the gulf into our CWA on Thursday which may
provide a slight convective boost, but uncertainty exists in how
exactly this feature will evolve and what effect it will have. All
this considered, rain chances are expected to be slightly higher
than Tuesday/Wednesday, but still lower than earlier this week/last
weekend. The pattern will be more akin to normal summertime
patterns, with a mostly clear morning making way for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms most favored at or along the seabreeze
front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

By Friday, the aforementioned trough will be exiting the CONUS to the
east, nudging the subtropical high far enough away to the east to
stop influencing our region. A very weak and ill-defined front will
also be draped over the SE as the trough exits. Eventually, the
front should stall and wash out, but it is possible it could act as
an axis of increased convergence and lift for shower and
thunderstorm activity on Friday if it is strong enough and can push
far enough south into our region.

Following the trough`s exit, a dominant H5 ridge quickly establishes
over the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Large scale subsidence again
becomes the driving synoptic feature, and without southerly winds to
advect higher PWAT air, rain chances should remain much more muted
and seasonable through early next week. The bigger story with this
pattern is the growing threat of excessive heat. By the weekend,
high temperatures will climb into the mid-upper 90s, with apparent
temperatures well exceeding 100 and potentially even approaching
heat advisory criteria for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the most part at area
terminals. Scattered TSRA is possible at DHN/ABY/ECP this
afternoon with lower chances across eastern terminals of TLH/VLD.
Any thunderstorms would likely bring brief IFR/MVFR visibilities.
VFR conditions and quieter conditions return tonight as TSRA
activity winds down. Brief moments of MVFR conditions after
sunrise are possible at all terminals from 12-16z Wednesday as
low-level cumulus from early morning heating develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Light to gentle southerly to southwesterly breezes remain over the
northeastern Gulf through the middle of the week thanks to a
sprawling surface high in the western Atlantic. The high gets pushed
south on Friday, allowing for more westerly breezes to take over.
Winds become easterly to southeasterly by Saturday as strong high
pressure sets in to the north over the Mid-Atlantic. Daily chances
of showers and thunderstorms continue, especially during the
overnight and morning hours each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A wetter pattern as of late, light winds, and elevated afternoon
humidities will keep fire weather concerns low through the next few
days. Only concerns would be higher dispersions across some of our
Georgia counties where lower rain chances and drier air could allow
elevated dispersions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Despite somewhat lower rain chances the next few days, locally heavy
downpours remain a concern thanks to precipitable water values
exceeding the 50th percentile for mid-late June. Some quick ponding
on the roads and minor flooding of low-lying areas is possible due
to the slow movement of the showers and storms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  92  74  91 /   0  30  10  60
Panama City   78  90  78  90 /  10  40  30  40
Dothan        72  92  73  91 /   0  40  10  40
Albany        72  92  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
Valdosta      72  94  74  93 /  10  30  10  40
Cross City    72  93  72  93 /  10  30  10  30
Apalachicola  78  88  78  88 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM....Wool
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Reese