324
FXUS62 KTAE 230018
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
818 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The forecast is in decent shape, so no updates are forthcoming.
Slow-moving convection is encroaching on and starting to fill in
to the Flood Watch area from Albany over to Tifton and Fitzgerald.
Low-level northeast flow overtopped by SW-W flow aloft is a
favorable setup for backbuilding convection, and this is the case.
In an extremely moist air mass characterized by PW values of 2.1
to 2.4 inches, the slow-moving convection will bring a quick 3-6
inches of rain to localized spots. The Flood Watch will looks
valid until it expires overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

An unusually moist airmass is in place across the region as a
frontal boundary approaches from the north. This boundary will
continue to be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development as
it also interacts with the sea breeze boundary on Saturday
afternoon.

So looking at how convection is evolving this afternoon, pretty
substantial coverage is in place across the Florida Panhandle and
we`re starting to see some development into SE Alabama. What`s
interesting is that the Florida Big Bend sea breeze boundary is once
again making good progress toward I-10 and shows signs of moving on
toward South Georgia. Visible satellite imagery shows an agitated
cumulus field across much of South Georgia, so the expectation is
storm development will begin over the next hour or two across South
Georgia, with a greater focus across the flood watch counties late
this afternoon or evening. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate a
good chance of exceeding 3 inches of rain within the flood watch
area (~40%) by late this evening.

After about 06z, support over land for showers and storms is lost
with instability diminishing, but the pattern favors an active
marine convective regime and anticipate storms approaching the
Florida Panhandle coast prior to daybreak. Expect storms to be just
as numerous on Saturday, with a particular focus in South Georgia
and the Florida Big Bend by the afternoon hours.

Both today and on Saturday share the same theme with respect to
storm motion - slow. With 1000-700 mb wind fields very light, storms
will move little and produce heavy rainfall rates which will lead to
the potential for flash flooding. As a result, a portion of the
region is within a SLGT risk for flash flooding for today and it is
anticipated a similar upgrade from MGNL to SLGT will occur for
Saturday. No changes are planned at this time to the flood watch
across South Georgia. A flood watch expansion/merger was
contemplated to account for the excessive rainfall risk into the
Florida Big Bend, but with the lack of any significant model signal
for more than 6 inches of rain into North Florida, will delay any
flood watch expansion to later shifts to allow for greater model
certainty.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Shortwave trough over the southeast US that has supported the
stationary boundary the past few days will weaken and move
northeast as the longwave trough digs south in its wake and in
response to the amplifying ridge across the intermountain west.
On Sunday, the front will stretch from the Florida panhandle
northeast to coastal southeast Georgia. Rainfall chances will be
highest along and south of the front with a 50-70% chance.

The longwave trough supports a trailing cold front that will move
through the area Monday. Behind the front, high pressure will
build in originating from southern Canada. This cooler and drier
airmass will help scour out the over 2 inch PWATs ahead of the
front down to near an inch Tuesday; impressive for August. Rain
chances Monday will be 30-50% in the Florida Big Bend and Tuesday
chances are 20-30% focused mainly in the eastern Big Bend.
Wednesday is more of the same before moisture returns Thursday and
rainfall chances slowly increase but mainly relegated to the
Florida counties.

The cooler air wont arrive quick enough Monday as highs most
locations will reach the low 90s. Tuesday highs will be 1-2
degrees lower and Wednesday highs will mainly be in the 80s across
much of the Tri-State area. Dewpoints in the wiregrass Tuesday and
Wednesday appear to fall in the upper 50s in spots. As the
moisture returns Thursday, highs will begin a slow trend upwards
into the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 818 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The main challenges are with timing of convection, and the extent
of late night and morning low stratus.

The air mass is very moist, and a slow-moving front will be slowly
making its way in from northern Alabama and Georgia. So a
convectively unsettled 24 hours is expected. Ongoing convection
near ABY will linger for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, there
will still be some familiar diurnal rhythm to the convection,
with morning convection near the coast, then afternoon convection
further inland.

Low stratus is the other concern. Shallow northeast winds at the
surface will almost certainly bring IFR cigs on Saturday morning
for ABY and DHN. VLD, TLH, and ECP will be close to the southern
edge of the stratus, so confidence is lower at the latter
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Winds will primarily be out of the west to west-southwest this
weekend ahead of a weak front draped over the Southeast US and
Gulf Coast. Numerous showers and storms are expected along and
ahead of the front this weekend. By Monday, winds will turn more
northwesterly to northerly as a front clears the marine area,
bringing a reduction to showers and storms. Winds will remain
around 10 knots or less through the period with seas around 1 to 2
feet. Winds and waves could be higher in and near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next few
days. The rain-cooled air and cloud cover will keep dispersions
low, and pockets of poor dispersions are likely Saturday. The
cold front is expected to complete its passage by Monday, allowing
drier air to move in through next week. Expect drier conditions
next week along with potentially high dispersions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The moist pattern ahead of the frontal zone will continue to
allow for heavy rainfall through Saturday. The slow forward motion
of any storm will allow for localized rainfall amounts of 2-3
inches fairly quickly. Storms that move over the same area or back
build could lead to flash flooding with some spots receiving 3-5
inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts up to 7 inches today.
A similar scenario is in place for Saturday, but confidence in
the placement and amounts is not high enough at this time to issue
a flood watch.

Note that in this event, the primary focus is on flash flooding.
Even with the rainfall amounts, widespread totals are not expected
to be sufficient to lead to significant rise on area rivers.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  84  73  89 /  50  80  30  60
Panama City   76  86  75  90 /  60  70  40  50
Dothan        72  84  71  89 /  50  60  20  30
Albany        72  84  72  88 /  70  80  30  40
Valdosta      73  84  72  88 /  70  80  40  60
Cross City    74  87  74  90 /  50  80  60  80
Apalachicola  77  86  77  88 /  60  80  50  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ125>131-147-148.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey