023
FXUS62 KTAE 290610
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
210 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Much cooler day is on tap for the area as shortwave rounds a broad
east coast upper level trough and interacts with a weak stationary
front draped across the forecast area. Light stratiform rain was
occuring this morning well to our west and northwest. This activity
should drift east through the morning will likely bring light rain
showers to our southeast Alabama and Panhandle counties through the
early afternoon. Further east across the Florida Big Bend and
southern Georgia uncertainty for rain and storms development is a
little higher. This uncertainty likely comes from how cloud cover
could influence the instability that will develop through the day.
If cloud cover maintains to stay thin through the morning, it will
increase confidence in the thunderstorm potential for the latter
part of the day. Severe weather isn`t likely but some nuisance
flooding can`t be ruled out in some of the stronger storms.

As the shortwave pushes through by the evening, much of the activity
should begin to diminish, but broad troughing still in place will
lead to the potential for isolated showers continuing into the
overnight hours. Another weak shortwave approaches the region from
the west late tonight and into Saturday so more development of
showers can`t be ruled out by early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A stationary front remains stalled over the area through this
weekend, leading to a rather wet, unsettled weather pattern. PWATs
will climb to around 1.9 to 2.1 inches across the area, which is
around the 75-90th percentile for late August. As a few ripples in
the mid-level flow round the base of the large eastern US trough and
move across the area, weak frontal waves may develop at times,
enhancing the rain chances. Given that we`re expecting periods of
showers and storms, the timing of such waves is rather uncertain,
but most of the activity will be during the daytime hours over land
and overnight over the waters. Rain chances area wide are around 70-
90%. With an abundantly moist atmosphere, locally heavy rain will be
possible in storms and some nuisance flooding will be possible in
areas that receive multiple waves of rain. The boundary sags a bit
southward on Sunday, keeping the highest rain chances (60-80%) in
the Florida counties and 40-50% elsewhere.

North of the boundary, northeast flow will prevail, which usually
results in cooler-than-expected temperatures thanks to cloud cover
lingering for a longer time. Thus, knocked Saturday`s highs down a
couple of degrees into the upper 70s to lower 80s in southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia with low to mid 80s elsewhere. Sunday
is pretty similar, though a couple degrees warmer. Lows both nights
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

The large trough over the eastern US nudges slightly eastward and
our front sags ever so slightly southward. The front doesn`t make it
very far south and gets stuck around Central Florida by mid week.
High pressure does begin to build across the eastern US through mid-
week. Progressively each day, rain chances will drop little by
little, but the gradient of daily rain chances remains the same --
higher south, lower north. The next larger trough late next week
will send a stronger cold front to our area, but its influence won`t
be felt until after this period. Highs will slowly climb back up
into the mid to upper 80s again through the course of the week.
Lows will stay in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions is likely today as increasing clouds
and rain chances move in through the morning and afternoon. Most
activity through 18z should be without thunder, especially for
western terminals at DHN/ECP. After 18z TSRA chances increase,
especially at TLH/ABY/VLD. Most TSRA chances should decrease after
00z, but light rain showers will likely remain possible late into
the TAF period along with potential redevelopment of more widespread
MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A stationary front will waver over the marine area through the
weekend bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Gentle
breezes will continue through the weekend with seas around 1 to 2
feet. To the north of the front, winds will be northeasterly, but
south of the front, winds will be westerly to southwesterly. The
front dips south of the marine area Sunday night into early next
week. High pressure builds in over the eastern US, tightening the
pressure gradient over the waters. Thus, winds will become moderate
to fresh out of the northeast. Cautionary conditions are possible
Sunday and Monday nights with seas building to 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Increasingly moist air mass is expected today and into this weekend
with the chance for wetting rains peaking on Saturday across much of
the region. Wet conditions continue into Sunday mainly south of I-
10. Easterly transport winds expected on Friday with directions
becoming more variable through the weekend depending on the
evolution of the frontal system. Dispersions will likely remain low
through the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Models are still struggling a bit with the placement of the heavy
rainfall over the weekend. However, the trend is for the bulk of
Friday and Saturday`s rainfall to be over the land areas, while
Sunday onward, the rain is more near the coast and offshore. Models
do tend to struggle with the placement of stationary fronts,
particularly with how far north the front can make it. Areas closest
to the front will have the heaviest rain potential. Most likely,
areas north of I-10 will see about 1 inch of rain on average, with
areas south of I-10 seeing about 1-3 inches as an areal average.
But, reasonable worst case scenario (10% chance of seeing more than
these totals) through the weekend yields isolated pockets of 3 to 6
inches. This would cause nuisance-type flooding of poor drainage,
low-lying, or urban areas. These higher-end totals would be more
confined to areas along and south of I-10.

Most of the rivers can take several inches of rain with no problem,
but the most vulnerable river would be the Sopchoppy which just fell
out of action stage about 30 hours ago. It would take about 4 inches
of rain to bring it back to action stage and about 6 inches to bring
to minor flood. The St. Marks at Newport has also been elevated
lately, and it would take about 2-3 inches to bring the river back
into action stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  72  83  70 /  50  20  90  40
Panama City   86  73  84  72 /  40  40  80  50
Dothan        79  69  80  68 /  40  40  80  30
Albany        81  69  80  69 /  40  50  80  30
Valdosta      85  70  83  69 /  40  30  80  40
Cross City    88  72  86  71 /  50  30  90  50
Apalachicola  86  74  82  74 /  30  30  90  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Young