551
FXUS62 KTAE 031343
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
943 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

No changes to the forecast are needed this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Warm and mostly rain-free weather continues through tonight thanks
to a dry airmass reinforced by a large upper trough axis draped
across the Deep South. Localized convection is possible in the SE FL
Big Bend this afternoon where relatively higher moisture resides
(i.e., 1.5-1.7" Satellite-Derived PW). Some light radar returns may
also encroach into the Wiregrass ahead of a weakening front sagging
from the Appalachians. Otherwise, any showers or isolated
thunderstorms should remain offshore. Forecast high temperatures
range from the upper 80s to low 90s under a mix of sun and cumulus
clouds. Modest radiational cooling prompts lows in the mid/upper 60s
tonight into Thursday morning away from the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Eastern US upper trof will persist into the weekend. Two shortwave
trofs will move through the flow supporting cold fronts; the first
cold front reaches the southeast US Friday but will wash out and not
have much effect on sensible weather. Temperatures into the weekend
will slowly climb each day from the low 90s for highs Thursday to
mid 90s this weekend and heat indices of 100-105F in spots. PWATs
remain modest (1.4-1.6 inches) despite surface winds having a
general southerly component. Rain chances mainly favor seabreeze
zones and southeast Big Bend at 20-30%.

The second cold front arrives Sunday as the supporting trof begins
to lift northeast into southern Canada. Longer range models indicate
the cold front slows down and possibly stalls. There is uncertainty
with the models on exactly where the front stalls which will have
impacts on rain chances and temperatures. Adding to the mix is added
moisture from a west moving tropical wave near the southeast coast
next week and moisture from TC Lorena as it gets picked up in the
flow after crossing Baja California. The added cloud cover and rain
chances, depending on the location of the front, will bring highs
back down in the upper 80s. Rain chances early next week bump back
to 30-60% favoring the southern zones but everyone has a chance
which will fluctuate based on the location of the aforementioned
elements.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Continued VFR conds thru the period at all terminals. Light NE
winds prevail with fair-weather cumulus expected. Winds go calm or
variable after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Light to moderate easterly flow will persist into the weekend with
slight uptick in wind speeds in the overnight hours each day. As a
cold front nears the waters Sunday night, winds will clock around
first to the west then the north. Mainly slight chances for
convection over the waters through the period with an increase in
chances as the cold front approaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A dry airmass presiding over the Tri-State area keeps rain chances
at a minimum. There are no fire concerns at this time. Relative
humidity bottoms out in the 40s for most inland locations. Northeast
winds on Wednesday turn more south to southeasterly Thursday-Friday.
The seabreeze each afternoon prompts a southwest wind from the coast
towards I-10.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Little to no rainfall is expected through the weekend. Depending
on where the front stall this weekend into early next week, rain
chances will increase. Likely rainfall totals will be around 0.5
to 1 inch with localized totals of a couple inches. This would not
be enough to cause hydrological concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  68  92  71 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   89  71  90  73 /  10   0  10   0
Dothan        89  66  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        89  66  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      89  66  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    91  69  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  87  71  87  74 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Young