146
FXUS62 KTAE 020523
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
123 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Rain chances are forecast to increase substantially this weekend
  with several rounds of showers and storms possible across the
  region. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall is
  in effect for parts of Southeast Alabama and the Florida
  Panhandle for Friday and Saturday. With a slight (level 2 of 4)
  risk for excessive rainfall across the Panhandle and Southeast
  Alabama for Sunday.

- Heavy rainfall potential continues into early next week.
  Additional flooding concerns could develop though forecast
  uncertainty at this time still remains somewhat large.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Scattered to widespread shower activity with isolated
thunderstorms is ongoing this afternoon across the Panhandle, and
the southeastern Florida Big Bend. This activity is being forced
by steadily increasing moisture transport from the southeast
along with widespread surface heating and instability. Expect most
of this activity to continue into the late afternoon and early
evening hours before loss of daytime heating leads to a steady
reduction in coverage through the evening.

For Friday, surface high pressure across the western Atlantic
will retreat eastwards For the local area, this will bring a
continued increase in deep-layer moisture within the southeasterly
flow. With the pronounced precipitable water increase to around 2
to 2.25 inches, scattered to widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms are forecast. The one fly in the ointment for
tomorrow`s precipitation chances will be cloud cover. Despite the
higher PWATs, the absence of any significant forcing mechanism
aside from daytime heating, speed/frictional convergence along the
coastline, and a weak surface trough across the Panhandle, the
increased cloud cover could limit the daytime heating necessary
for more widespread showers/storms. Localized flooding remains
possible tomorrow, primarily due to heavy rainfall rates of 2 to
3"/hr where any convection can train for an hour or two.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The longer term pattern continues to remain highlighted by an
anomalously moist pattern as deep-tropical moisture remains in
place across the Gulf Coast states. We will remain on the western
periphery of a weakening and flattening subtropical ridge across
the western Atlantic which will funnel tropical moisture into the
region. Additionally, through the weekend and into next week, a
decaying frontal boundary will drop into the Gulf Coast states and
as it interacts with this moisture and weak frontal lows develop
and drift east across the decaying boundary, we can expect a
fairly wet pattern through the weekend and into much of next week.

While predicting which days will be heaviest at this point is
still fairly dependent on the development of these surface lows,
what we are highly confident on is widespread rainfall of at least
3 to 6 inches into next week, with the greater amounts along the
coast. The main thing to watch for next week will be an
approaching frontal boundary. This boundary will bring an increase
in rainfall totals as it interacts with the deep-tropical moisture
across the Gulf Coast states. If this frontal boundary stalls or
is slow to clear the region into next week, high-end rainfall
totals could be fairly large. If that scenario happens, it could
lead to even higher rainfall amounts of 6 to 9 inches, especially
along the coast where any frontal boundary in this setup is more
likely to stall if they do. Locally higher amounts could easily
top 10 inches in the those scenarios where the front stalls.

With the high rain chances expect cooler afternoon high
temperatures and mild overnight lows due to the tropical airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning,
although some lower ceilings will be near ABY and VLD near
sunrise. Later today, SHRA will increase in coverage across the
area from south to north. A few thunderstorms are also expected
across the area, but the coverage of thunderstorms will be lower
with PROB30s shown for TSRA for most areas this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Coverage of showers and storms will increase through the rest of
the work week and into the weekend. A return to brief cautionary
conditions appears likely tonight and into Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Moisture and rain chances will continue to increase dramatically
over the next couple of days. Widespread showers and storms are
expected Friday and into the weekend, with locally heavy rainfall
possible. Aside from low dispersions over the weekend, no fire
concerns are expected. Widespread rainfall totals through the
weekend will be around 2 to 3 inches across our AL/GA counties
and 3 to 5 inches across our Florida counties. Locally higher
amounts of 5 to 7 inches are possible along the immediate
coastline. A brief lull in rain chances is expected during the
middle of the upcoming week but more rainfall likely moves in
from next Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Despite the very wet pattern that`s expected over the weekend and
into next week, even higher end rainfall amounts will struggle to
bring significant riverine concerns due to drier antecedent
conditions across our mainstem rivers. However, should the higher
end rainfall amounts of widespread 6 to 9 inches verify over the
next 7 days, some rivers could reach action stage, and some of
the smaller river streams could see minor flooding. The bigger
issue flooding wise will come from high rainfall rates and across
any poor drainage or urbanized areas given forecast rainfall
amounts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  73  87  73 /  50  40  70  50
Panama City   85  74  85  74 /  90  60  90  70
Dothan        89  71  86  71 /  70  20  80  40
Albany        90  72  87  72 /  50  30  70  50
Valdosta      90  72  88  73 /  50  40  70  40
Cross City    89  73  88  73 /  60  50  70  40
Apalachicola  83  76  84  76 /  70  70  90  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ108-112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs