653
FXUS62 KTAE 170944
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
544 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Weak low pressure across the north-central Gulf coast will continue
to move away from the area today. However, southerly flow will
continue to keep moisture elevated with precipitable water values
over 2 inches, especially across the western half of the area. Thus,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop today with the greatest coverage across the western half of
the area. Locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be the
main threats. The onshore flow will also contribute to a high risk
of rip currents at the beaches today. High temperatures will
generally range from around 90 across the western half of the area
to the mid 90s across the eastern portions of the area. Overnight
lows will remain muggy in the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The low pressure area continues into southern Arkansas Friday with
southeasterly flow remaining across the area, at least for 1 more
day. PWATs continue at 2"+ inches leading to good coverage of
showers and storms through the area with highs in the mid 90s.

The subtropical ridge will build westward across the Florida
peninsula and southeast US Saturday then into the southern Plains
Sunday. Moisture decreases with PWATs falling to around 1.7-1.8
inches as winds turn to more southwesterly and westerly. Afternoon
rain chances slide to chance category (40-50%) favoring I10 and
south to 20-30% into southwest Georgia. As the dome of high pressure
sits overhead, less cloud cover and decreasing moisture, highs this
weekend will push the upper 90s to near 100 degrees which appears to
extend into Monday as well. Heat advisories are possible this
weekend into early next week, depending on how well mixing takes
place each day.

A shortwave trough riding over the ridge will act to break the
western Atlantic ridge beginning late Monday which may allow an
increase in moisture from the north. Rain chances will jump back up
beginning Tuesday which will allow a reprieve from the near 100
degree highs from the weekend with highs back into the mid 90s for
the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning
offshore and move northward and affect ECP through the mid to late
morning hours. Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
gradually increase in coverage through the morning and into the
afternoon hours with TLH and DHN also likely to see activity. Mainly
VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms, although some
MVFR ceilings are possible this morning, particularly around ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A late evening ASCAT pass showed southeast winds of 15-16 knots
across the northeast Gulf waters. Expect a slight uptick in winds
currently through tonight with cautionary conditions slowly winding
down in waters east of Apalachicola early this afternoon and later
tonight in waters west of Apalachicola. Winds turn to southwesterly
beginning this weekend as deep layer high pressure sets up through
the southeast US. Marine conditions will be favorable after tonight,
beginning Friday through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will continue for the
foreseeable future. Areas of high dispersion are expected this
afternoon across portions of southwest and south-central Georgia due
to enhanced southerly transport winds. A warming trend will get
underway on Friday, with above average temperatures starting
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Isolated flash flooding will be a concern through Friday, mainly
over our FL counties.

Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common,
with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection
trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain
somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring
isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less
serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways.

Thunderstorm coverage will decrease over the weekend, then build
during the first half of next week. Most any summer thunderstorm
is capable of intense rainfall rates that can lead to short-lived
nuisance flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  76  93  75 /  70  10  70   0
Panama City   89  79  91  79 /  80  30  70  10
Dothan        91  74  95  74 /  70  10  60   0
Albany        93  74  96  75 /  50  10  60   0
Valdosta      95  75  96  75 /  50  10  60   0
Cross City    93  74  94  74 /  70  20  60  10
Apalachicola  88  79  89  79 /  90  20  80  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Haner