296
FXUS62 KTAE 310541
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
141 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Stationary boundary is draped from north central Florida westward
through our Gulf waters. Surface high pressure located in the
northeast US with ridging riding down the Appalachians will induce
northeast surface winds across the Tri-State region. This will usher
in drier air through the northern half of our CWA, hold the front at
bay from moving much at all, and pin the seabreeze this afternoon
closer to the coast. With higher PWATs located south of I10 and the
seabreeze pinned, have better rain chances (30-50%) relegated in
coastal sections, southeast Big Bend and extreme southern Georgia if
convection moves that far northward. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies
are on tap, northeast winds of 10-15 mph and highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Tonight, lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A broad upper level trough will prevail over the eastern half of the
country through much of the upcoming week. At the surface, an axis
of surface high pressure will extend down the eastern portion of the
Appalachians through much of the upcoming week and give much of the
forecast area broad northeasterly flow. Light south and
southwesterly flow develops late in the week and temperatures will
warm. The upcoming week will generally be dry given the lack of
appreciable moisture for shower/storm development.

The broad frontal system that lingered over the forecast area
through the weekend will continue to slowly push south on Labor Day
as the axis of the surface high noses south into the forecast
area. Any rain showers will likely be confined well to our south
with only portions of the southeast Big Bend possibly seeing rain
on Monday as these locations reside closer to the old frontal
boundary.

Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to see northeasterly flow across
the region but as the next shortwave in the broad upper level trough
approaches, we will begin to see light southerly return flow
ahead of another cold front. This will begin to increase rain
chances across the area on Wednesday, but given the lack of any
appreciable low-level moisture rain chances are likely to remain
quite low.

For Thursday and into the upcoming weekend, the cold front will
likely begin to stall but dry mid-level air in the upper level
trough should supress much of the shower and storm potential and
help temperatures warm back up into the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Beginning to get patchy MVFR cigs reported in southern Georgia and
along the Florida coast. A moist northeasterly flow will aid in
stratus development through the rest of the overnight into Sunday
morning. There is some disagreement in near term guidance WRT
coverage of stratus and leaned with the NBM guidance which is a
little more pessimistic compared to LAMP/CONShort. Overall, not much
change from the previous set of TAFs. IFR/MVFR cigs are expected to
continue developing and affect the TAFs through around 14-16Z Sunday
morning. Afterwards, a return to VFR or a mix of MVFR and VFR
through 18Z then VFR in the afternoon hours. Seabreeze is expected
to be located closer to the coast with rain decent rain chances
south of I10 but confidence is not high enough to mention at TLH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A frontal boundary over the nearshore waters will continue to settle
further south into the Gulf into Tuesday. Northeasterly winds
will be light through today but will likely increase Sunday night
into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens. This could lead to
periods of cautionary or near-advisory conditions, especially in
waters west of Apalachicola. The frontal boundary moves east
Wednesday with winds decreasing and becoming generally westerly
later in the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A drying trend takes hold over the next few days with afternoon
and evening showers and thunder storms confined to the
I-75 corridor of FL and the FL Big Bend. Moderate East-Northeast
transport winds will be in place thru Tuesday with mixing heights
away from the coast topping out around 5,000 feet. This promotes
pockets of high afternoon dispersion across inland regions today
and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

As the frontal system slides south the higher rainfall totals will
move south with it. Some rain is possible across the southeast Big
Bend this afternoon but rainfall totals will be light and no
hydrological concerns are anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  69  85  66 /  20   0  10   0
Panama City   88  71  89  69 /  20  10  20  10
Dothan        85  66  85  62 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        86  66  85  62 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      86  67  85  64 /  30  10  10   0
Cross City    88  71  88  68 /  60  20  30  10
Apalachicola  85  73  86  72 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs