411
FXUS62 KTAE 151848
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
248 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected
  today, with heat index values generally reaching 100-107
  degrees, especially over the Florida counties.

- Strong northeast winds will cause hazardous marine conditions
  across the northeast Gulf waters tonight through Thursday
  afternoon.

- A high risk of rip currents at local beaches is expected
  starting tonight and continuing through late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Deep layer ridging will continue over the region through today,
keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and dew points in the
upper 60s into low 70s. Later this evening into the overnight
hours, a backdoor cold front will move in from the Carolinas, as
the center of the surface high translates off to the northeast.
There is a slight chance for isolated showers/thunderstorms to
develop along the front and move towards the I-10 / I-75 corridor
this evening. PoPs are around 30-50% with higher chances in the FL
SE Big Bend. Breezy conditions will also begin as the front
passes through the region and continues through Wednesday. Winds
will be easterly/northeasterly at around 15 mph with occasional
gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoon on Wednesday.

Behind the front, drier air will filter into the region, cutting
off our rain chances for the next few days. Rain chances will be
limited to our marine zones as inland PWATs will range from
1.3"-1.5". The northeasterly flow will allow for slightly cooler
temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows will be noticeably cooler with temperatures in the
upper 60s. Dewpoints Wednesday and Thursday nights will dip into
the upper 50s.

An upper level trough, extending from the Bahamas will slowly
drift westward over the FL Peninsula to start the weekend. As this
occurs, the upper level ridge will retreat westward, allowing for
moisture to move in from the south. This will bring back chances
for showers/thunderstorms for the weekend. Lingering
north/easterly flow will keep temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s for the extended period. However, the humidity will return
with dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s. This will allow for heat
indices to warm to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees by this
weekend.

&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Low-level E-NE flow will generally strengthen over the next 24
hours. A speed surge in the easterly flow will lead to a band or
area of showers that will pass near the terminals, first VLD, then
TLH and possibly ABY later this afternoon, and finally ECP.
Showers should pass outside the 10-mile radius for DHN. Cannot
rule out an embedded thunderstorm within the showers, but there is
currently no upstream lightning over southeastern Georgia, and
confidence is too low to mention.

There is a low chance of IFR stratus around sunrise Wednesday
near VLD. Easterly flow is usually favorable, but dry air
advection and fast flow lower confidence too much to include in
the TAF for now. Otherwise, look for a few hours of gusty
conditions on Wed morning starting as soon as the nighttime
inversion breaks about 2-3 hours after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A cold front will come through over the waters this evening,
increasing the easterly winds to 20-25kts and seas will increase
to 4-6 feet, with the occasional 7-8 feet for the offshore waters.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for tonight through Thursday.
Winds and seas will gradually relax into this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Breezy easterly winds will begin today, and become more
northeasterly on Wednesday with occasional gusts around 20-25 kts.
Dispersions for this week will be elevated, especially within the
ANF. Pockets in the SE Alabama and Florida Wiregrass region can
expect to see high dispersions on Wednesday. Pockets of high
dispersions are likely in the same locations for Thursday, and
extending to the I-75 corridor. MinRH values will remain above
critical in the 30%s to 40%s. Temperatures will cool slightly for
Wednesday through the weekend with afternoon highs in the low 90s.
Rain and thunderstorm chances begin to return over the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

No flash or riverine flooding concerns over the next several
days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  92  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   76  92  72  90 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        73  91  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        72  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    75  90  72  89 /  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  91  75  89 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to
     5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery