874
FXUS62 KTAE 141131
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
631 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 630 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

 - Elevated fire concerns today mainly over Southwest Georgia for
   critically low relative humidity.

 - Patchy fog is forecast across parts of the FL Panhandle & Big
   Bend, Southeast Alabama, and Flint River Valley this morning.

 - Drought will persist and/or worsen with no rainfall expected
   over the next several days combined with warming temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Per 3Z WPC surface analysis, a backdoor front was analyzed from
Valdosta through the Wiregrass Region with a large bubble of 1024-mb
surface high pressure stretching from TN to the East Gulf. The
presence of this boundary amidst a stable airmass opens the door for
patchy fog through sunrise for locations along/south where dew
points currently range from upper 40s to upper 50s. Some of the
fog may be locally dense.

For this afternoon, northeast winds behind the front bring a
reinforced shot of dry air such that Td`s tank in the 30s away
from the immediate coast. Such conditions prompt elevated fire
concerns mainly over SW GA (see fire section for more details).
Otherwise, expect a nice day with highs in the mid 70s despite
plentiful sunshine. Ideal radiational cooling via light/calm winds
under clear skies drives widespread inland lows in the 40s
tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

A warming & moistening trend amidst rain-free weather defines most
of the long-term period. Another backdoor front attempts to drop
into the Tri-State area around Monday, but ridging looks to keep the
boundary and any associated convection to our north. Ridging then
strengthens over the MS/TN Valley mid-week ahead of an amplifying
upper trough moving across Northern Mexico. Upper-height rises
foster high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with 50s for
lows starting Monday.

Our next rain-making system attendant to the southern (up)stream
trough approaches from the west towards the end of this forecast
cycle. Meanwhile, surface high pressure off the Atlantic coast
promotes more pronounced moisture return via efficient SE low-level
flow. Weak convergent or confluent flow may be able to squeeze out
low-topped maritime showers that reach parts of the Emerald Coast as
soon as Thursday.

Although it is too early to say with much confidence, severe weather
is potentially in play heading into next week if the trough can stay
far enough south and/or acquire a negative tilt east of the Ark-La-
Tex region. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

While VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, some
patchy MVFR/IFR fog is possible around sunrise. Fog should lift by
14z in areas where it develops. Winds turn more northeasterly
through the day following a backdoor cold front. The only
exception is a brief seabreeze at ECP late Friday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

A backdoor front ushers light to gentle northeast breezes on Friday.
Surface high pressure then shifts east of the region, causing gentle
to occasionally moderate westerlies this weekend. High pressure then
slides southward in response to another backdoor front from the
north early next week, which prompts a change to predominantly
onshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

A backdoor front brings a shot of reinforced dry air via northeast
winds today. Relative humidity is forecast to bottom out in the low
to mid 20s over much of SW GA Friday afternoon, so elevated fire
conditions will be present. Adjacent portions of SE AL and the I-10
corridor are also susceptible to critically low RH.

Airmass moderation gradually gets underway this weekend as dew
points & RH creep up thanks to prevailing SW winds as surface high
pressure shifts east of the Tri-State area. No rain is expected
through at least mid next week. When combined with a warming trend,
fuels should dry further over the next several days.

Lastly, look for daily afternoon seabreezes with greater inland
penetration from the coast beginning Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

No rainfall is expected over the next several days, so drought will
persist and/or worsen. For more information on our local drought
statement, visit: weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  46  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  53  74  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        75  46  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        74  43  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      74  43  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    76  42  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  53  73  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3