164
FXUS62 KTAE 291750
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
150 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

This afternoon and evening, the focus for showers and embedded
thunderstorms with excessive rainfall rates will be from the
FL Big Bend into Southwest GA. Latest mesoanalysis indicates
PWATS increasing to around 2.1 inches within this corridor and
radar estimated rainfall rates have been up to around 5"/hour
at times today. Storm motions will be east around 20 knots,
so main concern will be nuisance flooding. But where storms
train, especially from the lower I-75 corridor of GA into the
FL Big Bend given greater instability, isolated flash flooding
cannot be ruled out.

While thunderstorms diminish shortly after sunset, rain showers
will linger into the overnight hours mainly northwest of the
FL Big Bend. With drier air moving in aloft promoting clearing
at times, expect patchy fog to develop after midnight and max
around sunrise.

By late tonight and early Saturday morning, showers and storms
will be moving into the Emerald Coast, then spread northeast
through the day. PoPs will tend to be bifurcated, with maxima
near the I-75 corridor and along I-10. There is uncertainty
in coverage with the maxima along I-10, as some scenarios keep
it further south closer to the coast, resulting in a drier day.
The main concerns are heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash
flooding in the aforementioned areas. In addition, some of the
parameters indicate the potential for an isolated strong or
severe storm mainly in the FL/southern tier of GA counties,
with small hail and damaging winds the main concerns. Can also
not rule out some rotation if there is a nearby boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

The wetter pattern is forecast to continue into next week as a
stalled front remains near the coast or just offshore. This feature
along with increased moisture will help provide a focus for shower
and thunderstorm development each day with a boost from the
afternoon seabreeze. Rain chances do drop off later in the week
however as the front finally pushes off well to the south, placing
our region in a cooler and drier air mass once again.

Several rounds of showers and storms are expected Sunday into Monday
in particular, and the primary hazard will continue to be locally
heavy rainfall. Models have continued to waffle a bit on exactly how
much rain and where the highest totals are expected, although by
Sunday into Monday it seems that closer to the coast is favored over
further inland. Ultimately the impact(s) of any heavy rain Sunday
into Monday will heavily depend on how much rainfall the area picks
up today and especially Saturday which is forecast to be the wettest
day of the week. If the areas end up very saturated after Saturday,
it would take less rainfall Sunday and Monday to cause additional
issues.

Throughout the period expect relatively mild high temperatures in
the mid 80s to low 90s. Lows are forecast in the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Widespread SHRA this aftn and eve with isolated embedded TSRA,
with brief restrictions to MVFR possible. While TSRA dissipate
shortly after sunset, SHRA persist into overnight hours at ABY
and VLD. Expect cigs lowering to MVFR overnight with highest
confidence in restrictions at ABY, DHN, and VLD; cannot rule
out brief IFR as well. In addition to MVFR cigs, restrictions
to MVFR in fog are possible, mainly at aforementioned terminals.
Widespread SHRA/TSRA. On Saturday, expect cigs to only lift to
MVFR by the end of the TAF period, with widespread SHRA/TSRA
developing from mid to late morning at ECP and TLH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A stationary front will waver over the marine area through the
weekend bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Gentle
breezes will continue through the weekend with seas around 1 to 2
feet. To the north of the front, winds will be northeasterly, but
south of the front, winds will be westerly to southwesterly. The
front dips south of the marine area Sunday night into early next
week. High pressure builds in over the eastern US, tightening the
pressure gradient over the waters. Thus, winds will become moderate
to fresh out of the northeast. Cautionary conditions are possible
Sunday and Monday nights with seas building to 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Widespread wetting rains are expected Saturday, shifting to the
lower I-75 and I-10 corridors southward Sunday, then closer to
the Gulf coast on Monday. Transport winds light and variable on
Saturday, then shifting firmly northeast and increasing Sunday
and Monday. Pockets of low dispersion linger through Saturday
afternoon over much of the region, then more confined to the FL
Counties on Sunday afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds possible
near any thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Models are still struggling a bit with the placement of the heavy
rainfall over the weekend. However, the trend is for the bulk of
Friday and Saturday`s rainfall to be over the land areas, while
Sunday onward, the rain is more near the coast and offshore. Models
do tend to struggle with the placement of stationary fronts,
particularly with how far north the front can make it. Areas closest
to the front will have the heaviest rain potential. Most likely,
areas north of I-10 will see about 1 inch of rain on average, with
areas south of I-10 seeing about 1-3 inches as an areal average.
But, reasonable worst case scenario (10% chance of seeing more than
these totals) through the weekend yields isolated pockets of 3 to 6
inches. This would cause nuisance-type flooding of poor drainage,
low-lying, or urban areas. These higher-end totals would be more
confined to areas along and south of I-10.

Most of the rivers can take several inches of rain with no problem,
but the most vulnerable river would be the Sopchoppy which just fell
out of action stage about 30 hours ago. It would take about 4 inches
of rain to bring it back to action stage and about 6 inches to bring
to minor flood. The St. Marks at Newport has also been elevated
lately, and it would take about 2-3 inches to bring the river back
into action stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  71  83  70 /  70  30  70  30
Panama City   83  72  84  72 /  50  40  80  50
Dothan        80  70  81  68 /  50  40  60  10
Albany        81  70  80  68 /  60  50  60  10
Valdosta      82  71  81  69 /  70  50  60  20
Cross City    88  72  86  71 /  50  40  80  30
Apalachicola  85  74  83  73 /  50  30  80  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Young