746
FXUS62 KTAE 241906
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
206 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Another round of widespread patchy to dense fog impacting travel
  is likely tomorrow morning.

- A Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather is in
  effect Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for our central and
  western counties. Associated total rainfall amounts are unlikely
  to impact drought conditions.

- High confidence in below average temperatures during the second half
  of the week, with low temperatures near freezing on Friday and
  Saturday morning.

- Fire Weather concerns increase Thanksgiving Day and Friday with
  low relative humidity and ongoing drought conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Another round of patchy to dense fog looks to impact much of the
region tonight and tomorrow morning. Surface winds will be oriented
more out of the SE through the night which may favor our central and
western counties for higher probabilities of dense fog coverage
which is in line with some of our hi-res guidance. Still, with low
confidence in the exact spatial distribution of fog, fog was put in
the forecast for most of the region tonight. There is a low-end
chance for some low-topped showers tomorrow morning in our extreme
western counties in a zone of enhanced warm air advection ahead of
our next system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Tuesday night/Wednesday morning sees the arrival of an approaching
front that will usher in a pattern change away from the warm and
moist weather of the past few days and into a cool and dry
pattern. Ahead of the front, a band of showers and thunderstorms
will sweep through the area. Moderate deep-layer shear and curved
hodographs in the warm sector indicate at least a low-end severe
threat - limited primarily by the weak forcing as the parent
shortwave weakens and shoots NE. Any severe weather will likely be
confined to our northwestern counties and will be somewhat
dependent on the magnitude of surface heating that is able to
occur ahead of the front. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has
placed much of our central and western regions in a Marginal
(level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather. Regardless of severe
weather, associated rain totals are meager at best, with mean QPF
around 0.1-0.25" across the region, and even the 90th percentile
rainfall totals struggling to exceed 0.75-1". In all, while any
rainfall is welcome, this system will not significantly impact the
current drought conditions.

Temperatures and moisture plummet following frontal passage on
Wednesday. Thanksgiving day will be fairly cool, with highs in the
low 60s/high 50s, and lows dropping well into the 30s Thursday
night/Friday morning. Fire weather conditions will quickly become a
concern with this setup as dewpoints drop into the 20s on Thursday
and into mid-teens on Friday before beginning to increase this
weekend. With some elevated gradient winds as a ridge sets in to our
north, fire concerns will be maximized on Thursday and Friday as it
overlaps with widespread low-critical RHs and very dry fuels thanks
to the ongoing drought. Please make sure to exercise caution and
listen to local officials on fire guidelines - especially if you
are planning on any outdoor cooking or flames during the holidays.
Our next chance for rain is late this weekend as a low pressure
system may develop and push a front through our area - although
confidence is low at this point due to varying solutions in model
guidance.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Persistent low stratus and fog has lingered at TLH but is finally
showing signs of breaking up. IFR/LIFR cigs are still possible
through 19z, but all sites will be VFR by then. Another round of
fog is likely tonight, though duration is questionable as winds
increase shortly after 12z Tuesday. We`ll likely have IFR/LIFR
cigs everywhere between 06-12z give or take a couple hours either
side. Most sites will also have IFR/LIFR vsbys, but ABY may escape
the worst of the fog. VFR conditions resume after 12-14z tomorrow
at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds develop tonight
and linger through Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. A few
showers and storms are forecast to move through as the front moves
through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds turn northerly and
increase to Advisory levels late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Advisory level winds are forecast more often than not Friday and
Saturday as winds clock around to the east by Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Southerly flow ahead of an advancing cold front develops Tuesday. A
few showers are forecast Tuesday afternoon for the western Florida
Panhandle and western portions of southeastern Alabama ahead of the
cold front. Chances for a wetting rain remain medium to high (50-70
percent) for a line along and west of Panama City, FL to Albany, GA
and low to medium (10-50 percent) east of that line with lower
chances the more south and east you go. Much drier air filters in
behind the front for Thanksgiving Day and Friday, sending MinRH
values to between 20 to 30 percent Thursday and 15 to 25 percent
Friday. There remains a low (10 percent) chance of winds exceeding
15 mph Thursday, so there is the potential for Critical Fire Weather
conditions on Thanksgiving; of course, that largely depends on how
much rain there is Tuesday night into Wednesday and where it
falls.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rainfall amounts are generally forecast to be less than 0.50" across
the region with the most forecast to fall north and west of a line
from Albany, GA and Panama City, FL. There is a very low (10
percent) chance for 1" or more of across portions of southeast
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Rain chances and amounts
dwindle east of that line to less than 0.10". Another opportunity
for rain arrives late in the weekend into early next week. No
flooding is anticipated from any of these rain chances/totals.

As of Thursday, November 19, 2025, the US Drought Monitor now has
the area around the Florida-Georgia state line outlined in
Exceptional Drought (D4), which is the highest category on the
drought monitor. This is the first time since the 2011-2012 winter
that any part of our area of responsibility has been outlined in
Exceptional Drought.

For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   61  80  64  77 /   0   0  30  50
Panama City   65  79  66  77 /  10  20  70  40
Dothan        60  81  63  74 /  10  10  90  30
Albany        60  83  64  76 /   0   0  60  40
Valdosta      58  83  62  78 /   0   0  10  60
Cross City    57  83  59  80 /   0   0   0  30
Apalachicola  65  75  66  75 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese