089
FXUS62 KTAE 030134
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
834 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

Seasonably cool high pressure will remain in place across the Deep
South overnight with a broad trough in place over the eastern half
of the CONUS. Expect another chilly night with temperatures falling
into the lower to mid 30s. Frost will be fairly widespread with
relatively high dewpoints and light winds expected. A bit of
moderation is expected on Friday as a dry reinforcing front crosses
the area during the afternoon, with temperatures reaching the lower
to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

A reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air is expected to start out
the weekend in the wake of Friday`s cold front. The most notable
difference will come on Saturday with highs only reaching the mid
50s to low 60s across the area. Winds are forecast to become
east-southeasterly late Saturday into Saturday night, kicking off
moisture return across the western half of the area. Therefore,
lows on Saturday night are forecast to range from the mid 30s
across most of the Big Bend and Georgia to the low to mid 40s
across the Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

Fairly robust onshore flow is expected Sunday ahead of the next
frontal system. A trough is expected to swing eastward across the
southern Plains on Sunday, causing a low pressure system to begin
its eastward trek towards the Southeast. The warm front associated
with this system is forecast to push northward across the area
Sunday night, bringing a much warmer and more moist air mass
overhead. Expect fairly widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday morning ahead of the
cold front. Some severe weather could be possible with some fairly
strong wind shear expected, but instability looks low at this
point. Even still, it could be a typical high shear/low CAPE
severe weather setup for the Southeast CONUS.

Much cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of this system
with low temperatures dropping into the 20s across most of the
area Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Minimum wind chills could
reach the teens to low 20s, which would likely require Cold
Weather Advisories in addition to Freeze Warnings for hard freeze
conditions. High temperatures are forecast in the mid 40s to low
50s Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with
northwesterly winds of 5-10 kts by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

Gentle to moderate northerly to northeasterly breezes will
prevail through Friday. Moderate to fresh northerlies are likely
following a reinforcing cold front on Friday night. Winds will
clock around through the northeast and east on Saturday as high
pressure moves off to the east, then southeasterly and southerly
on Sunday as low pressure moves across the Mid-South region. Winds
likely become southerly early next week ahead of another system
and advisory level conditions are becoming increasingly likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the next several
days across the region. Winds will pick up Friday afternoon as a
reinforcing cold front crosses the area. This will increase
dispersion values. Lighter winds are expected on Saturday, with
lower dispersions. Rain chances will begin to increase on Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 225 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

No significant rainfall is expected through the next 7 days but
rainfall amounts of up to 0.50 inches are possible with a frontal
passage on Monday. No hydrological concerns are expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   35  62  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   39  65  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  61  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        32  60  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      33  62  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    34  64  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  41  64  41  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs