268
FXUS62 KTAE 190600
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Another warm day is on tap with temperatures warming well into the
90s away from the immediate coast. Westerly winds developing ahead
of a front will help keep the seabreeze pinned a little closer to
the coast than the past few days, with the best chances along and
south of I-10 later this morning into the early afternoon.
Meanwhile, an H5 shortwave passing north of the area has allowed a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms to develop near Memphis,
Tennessee this morning; it`s forecast to surge southeast into our
area later this afternoon. Ample instability ahead of the cluster of
storms along with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg means there is the
potential for a few strong to severe storms. We`ll also have to
monitor any potential interaction it may have with outflow
boundaries from any seabreeze showers and storms.

Showers and storms will die down as the evening progresses.
Temperatures settle in the lower to middle 70s tonight with some
patchy fog possible by sunrise, especially for those that experience
any heavy rain later today.&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

The shortwave departs off to our northeast, leaving behind a
weakening cold front in its wake. While the front itself may wash
out, the remnant boundary from today`s storms will likely combine
with the sea breeze to provide a focus for Friday`s storms.
Additionally, the overall synoptic flow in the mid levels is
northerly to northwesterly, which will help confine storms to the
southern portions of the area. The best chances for showers and
storms Friday afternoon will be across the Florida counties with
rain chances around 60-70%. Drier air in the low to mid levels
across Alabama and Georgia will help limit rain chances. Storms
that do get going on Friday will be capable of strong gusty winds
given the increasing dry air moving in in the mid-levels. DCAPE
will be close to 1000 J/kg combined with deep layer shear around
15 kt, sufficient for downbursts. A similar set up is expected for
Saturday with storms focused in the Florida counties along with
the potential for some strong downbursts (though the shear is
lighter).

Outside of storms, the heat begins to turn up thanks a building
ridge over the southeast US heading into Saturday. Highs will
generally be in the mid 90s across the area with heat index values
of 100-107 likely. Lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Strong ridging takes firm hold of the eastern US through the early
part of the week leading to very hot temperatures across the area.
Rain chances will remain confined mostly to the Florida counties for
daily sea breeze thunderstorms, but coverage will decrease thanks to
increasing subsidence. Highs will continue to climb into the mid to
upper 90s for highs. The NBM does suggest there is a very low (<10%)
chance for some spots in our area to reach the century mark. Heat
index values will peak in the 100-110 range each afternoon, highest
generally closest to the coast. Some areas could need a Heat
Advisory if heat index values rise above 108. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 70s.

Remember to take extra precautions if working or playing outdoors.
Stay hydrated; wear light-weight, light-colored clothing; and take
frequent breaks in the A/C or in the shade. And don`t forget about
the elderly, kids, and pets. For more heat safety information, visit
weather.gov/heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

While VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the
morning, a few areas of MVFR to IFR ceilings and/or fog as possible,
especially for KDHN in and around sunrise. A few seabreeze showers
and storms are expected in and around KECP and KTLH later this
morning into the early afternoon. Guidance continues to suggest a
line of showers and storms diving into our area and impact most of
our aerodromes by mid-afternoon into the early evening hours today.
Have attempted to time this out in the TAFs, but adjustments can be
expected as we get a better handle on how things are evolving in
future TAF packages. Most of the showers and storms should be
winding down by 01Z to 02Z at most TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

The Bermuda High over the western Atlantic extending into the Gulf
will result in a light south to southwest flow for the next several
days. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue,
especially during the overnight and morning hours each day. Into the
weekend, the high shifts a little farther north, bringing in more of
a light east to southeast flow over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Fire weather concerns remain low the next couple of days. Daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a concern into the work
week as temperatures warm from the lower to middle 90s today and
Friday to the middle to upper 90s over the weekend into early next
week. Fair to good dispersions are expected across Alabama and
Georgia districts later this morning into the afternoon ahead of a
batch of showers and storms that is expected to arrive after 2pm
EDT/1pm CDT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Some localized heavy downpours are possible in storms each
afternoon, which can result in quick ponding or minor flash flooding
in poor drainage or low-lying areas. However, widespread flood
concerns are not anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  74  93  74 /  50  50  60  30
Panama City   91  77  93  77 /  30  30  50  30
Dothan        93  74  93  74 /  50  20  30  10
Albany        93  73  93  73 /  50  20  30  10
Valdosta      96  74  94  73 /  40  50  50  30
Cross City    93  73  94  73 /  40  30  70  40
Apalachicola  89  78  90  77 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Young