635
FXUS62 KTAE 080101
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
901 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast each day
  for the next 7 days. The greatest chance will come during the
  afternoon through early evening hours.

- Heat indices will run in the upper 90s to lower 100s Tuesday and
  Wednesday with increasing heat indices later this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The east coast sea breeze has made it through the eastern half of
our area with only a few showers left. Thus, little coverage of
showers or storms is expected on land for the rest of the evening
with most of the activity being confined offshore. Thus, rain
chances and temperatures were adjusted for current trends. This
only resulted in a slight reduction in rain chances but no other
significant rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Weak frontal boundary is analyzed this morning along and just south
of I10 from the east coast of Florida westward into the Florida
panhandle then northwest towards central Alabama and Mississippi.
North of the area, high pressure is located throughout the Great
Lakes with wedging strengthening through the southern Appalachians
reinforcing the turning of the low level winds more northeasterly to
easterly with drier air working in from the north as well. Satellite
derived PWATs are 1.6-1.8" north of the Florida state line to near 2
inches closer to the coast. Aloft, ridging is located across the
central US and troughing is located down the eastern seaboard
southwest to the Gulf.

Drier air will continue moving south as the wedging extends further
southwest towards southern Alabama and the surface boundary pushes
southward across the Florida peninsula. PWATs range from 1.4" in the
wiregrass to 1.9" along the coast. The central US mid level ridging
elongates and extends towards the southeast US coast adding in
increasing mid level subsidence through the area. The increasing
drier air and subsidence will act to suppress greater coverage of
convection Tuesday and lowered rain chances especially west and
north of the Florida Big Bend. As low level flow turns northeast and
east, the east coast seabreeze will generally be the main driver for
the better coverage of convection whereas the Gulf coast seabreeze
will generally be pinned closer to the coast.

High temperatures will generally reach the lower 90s. Lowered
dewpoints in the afternoon by 1-2 degrees which yields heat index
values in the upper 90s to mid 100s; this should preclude heat
related headlines Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The same general setup from Tuesday will apply to Wednesday.
Easterly flow remains with high pressure to the north and subsidence
aloft as mid level ridging reaches the southeast US coast. Lowered
rain chances Wednesday by 10-20%, especially north of the Florida
State line where lower PWATs will reside with the highest of rain
chances along the coast and then the Big Bend later in the day as
the east coast seabreeze arrives.

Ridging shifts off the east coast Thursday as a trough enters the
central US and Midwest. At the same time, surface ridging weakens
and the front to the south dissipates setting up a return to deep
layer southwesterly flow. This will bring moist air back from the
Gulf with PWATs jumping back up to 2-2.2" into the weekend. Rain
chances will remain elevated as subsidence moves east with the Gulf
coast seabreeze taking shape each day with southwest surface and low
level winds.

Highs will generally reach the low 90s each day with heat index
values in the low to mid 100s. Though further out, there may be a
need for heat advisories beginning Thursday for portions of the area
as dewpoints creep back up on southwest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A few showers and storms may develop later this afternoon or
evening across far south GA and into FL. Confidence is on the
lower side at the moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Winds turn northeast to east tonight and for the next couple of days
as high pressure builds out through the Carolinas with speeds
generally moderate to fresh. Easterly winds will die off quickly on
Wednesday night and then becoming gentle southwesterlies on
Thursday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Surface winds will gradually shift from northeast this afternoon to
east Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure shifts into the
Carolinas and some drier air pushes towards the Gulf coast. Higher
rain chances will also shift towards the Florida counties and Big
Bend during this time. High pressure shifts off the east coast
beginning THursday with winds clocking around to southwesterly. This
will draw up increasing moisture from the Gulf as well as increasing
rain chances and coverage of storms area wide into the weekend.
Highs will generally reach the lower 90s each day. Heat indices the
next couple of days will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s; somewhat
higher heat indices will return Thursday with increasing moisture
possibly necessitating heat advisory headlines in portions of the
area as heat indices may approach 108-110F.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Short-lived nuisance
runoff issues are possible beneath the heaviest thunderstorms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  74  91  74 /  30  20  40  20
Panama City   91  75  90  75 /  50  20  30  40
Dothan        94  73  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
Albany        92  72  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      91  72  91  73 /  40  20  50  10
Cross City    90  73  91  73 /  50  20  70  30
Apalachicola  88  76  87  77 /  40  30  40  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl