656
FXUS62 KTAE 200642
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
242 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Long-duration hazardous heat wave continues through the end of
  the week. Heat products will keep being issued accordingly.
  Please exercise heat safety: www.weather.gov/safety/heat.

- Daily chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast. Strong-
  gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rain are the
  main threats. Highest rain chances are Friday-Saturday.

- The heat wave is poised to break late this week or early
  weekend, which likely opens the door for convectively active
  weather. A more typical summertime pattern returns early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Hazardous heat and robust thunderstorms will once again dominate
today`s forecast thanks to strong high pressure, nearby frontal
boundary to our north, and upper-level low over the FL Peninsula. A
Heat Advisory goes into effect along/south of the FL state line for
heat indices between 108 & 112 degrees - 11AM EDT/10AM CDT to 8PM
EDT/7PM CDT. High temperatures in the 90s will be common with lows
in the 70s. An isolated location or two may reach 100 (e.g.,
Valdosta, Albany). The only meaningful relief will be from
thunderstorms.

In terms of convection, we are looking at an early start offshore,
followed by a gradual spreading inland over the FL Big Bend, then
further development from storm outflow boundary collisions along the
I-10 corridor. Additional cells/clusters are expected to develop
around the Wiregrass via frontal forcing. Strong instability, a deep
mixed layer, and satellite-derived Precipitable Water around 2"
support a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong
to isolated damaging gusts, frequent lightning, locally heavy rain,
and some hail. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for much of the Tri-State area in their Thursday
Outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

The long-duration heat wave is finally poised to break in response
to an amplifying Eastern US trough that sends a frontal boundary
farther southward into the region. A tradeoff is higher rain
chances, so expect a period of unsettled weather Friday-Saturday,
followed by improvement come Sunday. We will also have to be on
guard being positioned in NW aloft with the ridge retrograding to
the western US (i.e., Mesoscale Convective Systems).

All signs point to more of a seasonable late-summer feel for much of
next week such that widespread heat products are not anticipated.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s (heat
indices several degrees higher). Overnight lows drop to the low 70s
away from the immediate coast. Thunderstorms remain possible each
day, but likely more run-of-the-mill variety for the latter part of
August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail throughout the
TAF period. PROB30 remains in place for potential thunderstorms
impacting area terminals later this afternoon where gusty winds
and brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible. Patchy fog may
briefly impact area terminals within the next couple hours,
however confidence is still not high enough to include in the
TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Elevated thunderstorm chances are forecast through this weekend
thanks to weakening high pressure in response to a frontal boundary
sagging into the Deep South. Maritime convection will pose a threat
for strong to gusty winds, frequent lightning, low visibility from
heavy rain, and potential waterspouts. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
west winds are prevail with daily afternoon seabreezes across the
immediate nearshore legs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

The main fire concerns continue to be hazardous heat conditions
persisting for at least one more day and daily chances for afternoon
thunderstorms. The heat wave is poised to break heading into the
weekend.

High temperatures well into the 90s will be common with heat indices
up to 112 degrees, primarily along/south the FL state line today.
Thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty/erratic
winds (some strong to severe), and locally wetting rains are
additional threats.

Prevailing west to NW winds are forecast outside of daily afternoon
seabreezes across our FL counties, but become more variable Friday-
Saturday thanks to the presence of a frontal boundary. The latter
likely brings a period of unsettled weather during that time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance
flooding in urban, poor-drainage, and low-lying areas. Some isolated
locations may see 2 to 3+ inches in a brief period of time from the
strongest storms, as observed yesterday in parts of Bay County, FL.
Such a scenario could foster small-scale flash flooding. Otherwise,
there are no significant hydrological concerns the next several
days. All area rivers are currently running well below action stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  75  93  74 /  40  20  70  40
Panama City   92  78  91  77 /  30  20  50  50
Dothan        96  74  94  73 /  30  40  60  30
Albany        99  75  96  74 /  20  20  70  50
Valdosta      98  75  95  73 /  20  20  70  50
Cross City    94  75  92  74 /  50  30  70  50
Apalachicola  91  78  89  78 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-
     112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3