951
FXUS62 KTAE 011350
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
950 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The forecast is on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Little change is expected through tonight. In the grand scheme of
our seasons around the tri-state region, fake fall is making a
house call. If you look at normal temperatures, they do not
typically even start the process of showing a sustained drop until
after September 15. So think of this as either fake fall, or a
reprieve from the summer weather that is still normal as we start
September.

A broad upper low centered over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region has
a fairly large cyclonic envelope, with a broad upper trough
extending down through the Carolinas and Georgia. Meanwhile at the
surface, a long fetch of NE wind is funneling down the Carolina
and Georgia coastal plain and across our region, in the squeeze
between high pressure near Lake Ontario and low pressure between
NC and Bermuda. The NE flow will tap into the heart of a drier air
mass over eastern Virginia and reinforce our drier and not-so-hot
air mass on Monday. Shower chances on Monday will be confined to
the SE Big Bend region, where deeper moisture and PW values of 1.5
to 1.8 inches will hang on. In contrast, anywhere north of I-10
will have drier Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1 to 1.5 inches,
which is too dry to support deep, moist convection. With high
temperatures on Monday running 2-5 degrees below normal and a
moderate breeze all day long, it will feel uncommonly tolerable
for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Broad upper trough across the eastern third of the US will remain
in place as one upper low over the northeast US weakens and moves
northeast while a stronger upper low dives from Canada towards the
northern Great Lakes. Northeast low level flow will continue with
high pressure over the Appalachians and the pesky stationary
boundary to our south. As a cold front advances into the upper
midwest Wednesday, aforementioned high pressure gets shunted
eastward as well as the stationary boundary gaining momentum to
push northeast and away from the region. This will break the
low level northeast flow and send a pair of cold fronts toward
the Gulf coast as the upper low spins across the Great Lakes
region and back into southern Canada; the first arriving Friday
but with dry air in place the arrival will be of little fanfare.
The second front is at the end of this forecast period and appears
to slow as it reaches the Gulf coast.

PWATs will be fairly low (1.1-1.3 inches) through midweek with
continued northeast low level flow and drier air from the
Appalachians. The seabreeze will be pinned closer to the coast and
low rain chances there and the southeast Big Bend. Heading into
later this week, the northeast flow clocks to more of a westerly
component with PWATs slowly increasing but more mid level dry air
keeping rain chances low. It may not be till later next weekend
that we experience an increase in rain chances with the second
front possibly stalling and PWATs jumping back towards 2 inches.

Temperature-wise through the week highs will slowly tick up into
the low to mid 90s by Saturday while lows will mainly be in the
middle 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR through the period. Northeast winds persist with some
gustiness this afternoon at all sites up to 15-20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Small craft advisories remain in effect for the Gulf waters
through this morning in waters east of Apalachicola and this
afternoon in waters west of Apalachicola. Additional advisories
may be needed tonight into Tuesday morning as well.

As high pressure is anchored to our north and a stationary front
to our south, northeast winds between these two features will
persist into mid week. Nightly offshore surges are expected till
then with ongoing advisories currently and possibly needed tonight
as near 20 knot winds develop through Apalachee Bay transitioning
to off the panhandle coast. Towards the end of this work week,
winds slacken and clock to the west as the stationary boundary
moves eastward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

High pressure to the north will promote northeast winds over the
next few days as well as drier air. Transport winds this
afternoon will range between 15 to 20 mph while slightly lower
speeds into mid week. Mixing heights will range between 4000 to
6000 feet with afternoon humidities falling into the low to mid
40 percent range. High dispersions today will be located through
most of the Florida districts as well as the Alabama wiregrass
region. Rain chances through mid week will be located mainly near
the coast and southeast Florida Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Comparably drier conditions will continue this week by late August
and early September standards. Generally speaking, rainfall
amounts through next weekend will average an inch or less.
Therefore, no flash or riverine flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  65  88  67 /  10   0  10  10
Panama City   89  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  20
Dothan        86  62  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        85  62  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  64  88  66 /   0   0  10  10
Cross City    90  69  90  69 /  30  10  30  20
Apalachicola  87  71  85  73 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755-
     765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ751-
     752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl