368
FXUS62 KTAE 251050
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
650 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A weak cold front will drift south to near the Florida state line
this afternoon before stalling and pushed northward again by the sea
breeze. These boundaries and their collision will be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, especially in
the Florida Big Bend. There is a good deal of mid-level dry air that
storms will have to overcome, but this does two things. It may limit
the number of storms we see, but the storms that do develop will
have the potential to be strong. Given this environment, strong to
severe downburst winds are possible. DCAPE is anywhere from 1200-
1600 J/kg on various forecast soundings, and SBCAPE is 2500-4000
J/kg. Thus, while not everyone will see storms today, the storms
that do develop could pack a wallop.

The other story is the heat. Behind the front, drier air will mix
down, leading to hot, but not oppressively humid weather this
afternoon. Dew points will fall into the 60s in these areas. South
of I-10, and south of the developing sea breeze, the oppressively
muggy air remains in place, making for another sweltering day. Dew
points here will be in the mid to upper 70s. This combined with
temperatures well into the 90s to near 100 will result in dangerous
heat index values of 108-112 across the southern half of the area,
where a Heat Advisory is in effect. Lows tonight won`t offer much
heat relief with mid-70s to lower 80s area-wide.

For those that are working or playing outside, take frequent breaks
in air conditioning and stay hydrated. This level of heat is
dangerous if you don`t take precautions. Know the signs of heat
illnesses. And if you hear thunder today, remember "When Thunder
Roars, Go Indoors!"

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A more unsettled pattern is expected for much of the next week
with the mid level ridge retreating westward and troughing in
place Wednesday through the end of the week. This will allow
shower and thunderstorm chances to increase to scattered to
widespread each day with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
the primary threats. Also as a result, high temps are forecast to
lower into the low to mid 90s range Thursday through Saturday.
Over the weekend, the mid level ridge begins to build back into
the area, raising temperatures again into the mid to upper 90s and
limiting daily shower and thunderstorm chances just a bit into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Some patchy fog has developed near ECP and TLH this morning. Thus,
have added a tempo group through 13z for these sites. Scattered
TSRA will develop this afternoon roughly along a line from ECP to
VLD. The environment is favorable for these storms to produce
strong gusty winds. Confidence in storms is highest at TLH where a
PROB30 was introduced this cycle. TSRA was also introduced at VLD
based on latest model guidance. Storms will stay well away from
DHN and ABY today. Storms will fade after 00z. There`s some
possibility of low stratus and/or patchy fog near the end of the
cycle, but confidence is too low to include at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

West to southwest winds generally less than 15 knots are expected
through the period. Seas will generally be between 1 to 3 feet,
with the 3 foot waves being favored west of Apalachicola. Long
period swells will continue today before dropping to around 4 to 5
seconds by Wednesday. Nightly chances of showers and storms will
be possible over the waters with the highest chances east of

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Generally west to southwest transport winds around 10 to 15 mph and
very high mixing heights will lead to good to excellent dispersions
the next few afternoons. Dispersions will be highest across the
Alabama and Georgia zones Wednesday, then across the Georgia zones
and near the Suwannee Valley on Thursday. Minimum RH values will
fall into the upper 20s across the far northern zones with 30s and
40s elsewhere.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon near I-10 and
drift southward. These storms today could produce strong, gusty,
erratic winds in and near the storms. Rain chances increase further
for Wednesday and Thursday area-wide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Diurnal pop-up thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding
concerns where slow moving storms could produce several inches of
rainfall. Otherwise, there are currently no river flooding
concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   98  77  95  76 /  50  20  50  20
Panama City   93  80  90  78 /  30  10  40  30
Dothan       100  76  97  74 /  10  10  40  30
Albany       100  75  99  75 /  10  10  30  20
Valdosta      99  76  97  75 /  40  20  50  20
Cross City    96  76  93  76 /  50  30  60  30
Apalachicola  91  80  89  79 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-
     115-118-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ068.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Oliver