910
FXUS62 KTAE 011741
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
141 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Dry weather continues through Tuesday. Temperatures tonight dip
into the 60s across the board; a few locations in Georgia may
briefly dip into the upper 50s by sunrise Tuesday. Ample sunshine
pushes temperatures into the middle to upper 80s Tuesday
afternoon, or a few degrees below normal for early September.

A strong 1029mb surface high over the Northeast continues to push
cooler, drier air down the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and
into our area. Combine that with a weak surface low over Florida
and a brisk northeasterly breeze keeps a "taste of fall" over the
region through Tuesday. Forecast lows tonight are expected to be a
solid 5 to 8 degrees below normal, but should remain above record
lows that are in the upper 50s. Precipitable water values remain
between 1.2" to 1.5" across much of the region outside of the
Southeast Florida Big Bend, helping to keep us dry again Tuesday
afternoon. So even though there`s an H5 shortwave sliding over the
region Tuesday, raindrops will be extremely hard to come by with
the best chance across the SE FL Big Bend. Forecast highs are
expected to climb into the middle to upper 80s, or a few degrees
below normal for early September.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The surface high currently over New England would have lifted
further to the northeast while another high will be moving east
over the Great Lakes region as we start this term. In the upper
levels, troughing persists. Low pressure at the surface develops
in the eastern-central Gulf and moves over the FL peninsula. The
stationary boundary we`ve been talking about for days will remain
there, keeping the higher rain chances to our south. By Wednesday,
the low pressure in the Gulf (non-tropical) will shift eastward;
taking the stationary boundary with it, and shifting our surface
winds to be westerly. Our temperatures will increase slightly as
we will have highs in the lower to mid 90s by the end of the week.

A surface high will sweep south out of Canada by midweek into the
northern Plains. Ahead of the high is a cold front that will
approach the region by Friday. Forecast PWATs ahead of the front
are around 1.5 inches. Along with low CAPE and low shear, we are
not expecting much out of the front other than a northerly wind
shift. A second cold front in the extended period may bring in
some better rain chances if the PWATs can increase closer to 2
inches.

Temperatures throughout the period will have afternoon highs in
the low to mid-90s, warming through the week. With the increase in
humidity dew points for this upcoming weekend, heat indices will
be at or around 100 degrees for Friday and Saturday. These
temperatures may lead to a minor to moderate risk for heat-related
illness.

Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s warming to the low
70s by the end of the term. PoPs are generally limited to the
coast and SE Big Bend for the period with about 30-40 percent
chances through Thursday. There is a 30% chance and less
afterwards heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Gusty northeasterly breezes this afternoon become more light to
moderate near sunset through the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

As high pressure is anchored to our north and a stationary front
to our south, northeast winds between these two features will
persist into mid week. Nightly offshore surges are expected till
then with ongoing advisories currently and possibly needed tonight
as near 20 knot winds develop through Apalachee Bay transitioning
to off the panhandle coast. Towards the end of this work week,
winds slacken and clock to the west as the stationary boundary
moves eastward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

High pressure anchored over the northeast will continue to
provide northeasterly winds through mid-week before turning more
southerly to southwesterly later in the week. MinRH values will
drop to between 30-40% Tuesday afternoon with transport winds of
10 to 15mph out of the northeast and mixing heights nearing 5k ft.
Transport winds are forecast to weaken by mid-week, but mixing
heights are forecast to be at or above 6k ft. Rain chances remain
less than 30 percent most of the work week with the highest
chances across Florida.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Area rivers are in good shape with little to no rain expected for
the next several days. There are no other hydrological concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  88  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
Panama City   68  89  70  89 /   0  10   0  20
Dothan        62  87  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        62  87  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  88  65  90 /   0  10   0  10
Cross City    69  90  69  90 /   0  20  10  30
Apalachicola  70  86  72  87 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ751-
     752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery