767
FXUS62 KTAE 170131
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
931 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

There is a slight chance for light showers/thunderstorms this
evening, however current radar suggests that the activity should
remain over the coastal regions and marine zones where PoPs were
increased. Overnight, temps will "cool" to the low-mid 70s. Patchy
fog may develop in the Big Bend during the early morning hours.
Overall, the forecast is on track and only minor adjustments have
been made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Convection should diminish this evening once again with the loss of
daytime heating. For Tuesday, shortwave will located just to the
west of the forecast area, with best deep layer convergence across
the Panhandle and SE Alabama. Upper ridge will be a bit stronger
over the eastern half of the region tomorrow, so will have a bit
more of an east/west split in PoPs, with higher PoPs to the west and
a bit lower PoPs to the east. Temperatures will reflect this as
well, with highs in the upper 80s in the west, and lower 90s in the
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Wednesday sees slightly lower PWATs begin to filter through the CWA
(1.6-1.8" vs. the 2.0-2.2" of late). Without any discernible
upper level features to enhance lift and large scale subsidence
induced from the subtropical ridge to our northeast, the magnitude
of PoPs areawide will lower to more seasonable values. Afternoon
thunderstorms will still be possible, though less widespread than
previous days with the greatest coverage likely confined to along
the seabreeze front.

With generally less convective activity to limit temperatures and
continued subsidence, afternoon highs will easily climb into the low-
mid 90s on Wednesday, with apparent temperatures potentially
approaching - or exceeding - triple digits in some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Moister air (PWATs > ~1.8in) begins to advect back into the CWA as
early as Thursday morning, elevating PoPs to near/slightly above
seasonal values once more. Additionally, current guidance suggests a
subtle shortwave impulse will approach from the west by end of week
which would act to further increase PoPs, although exact details on
how much influence this feature will have is still somewhat murky.
High temperatures through the end of the work week will be in the
low-mid 90s, with low temperatures in the mid 70s across the
region.

By the weekend, a strong and sprawling 500mb ridge begins to develop
to our north over the east-central CONUS. On one hand, the large
scale subsidence associated with this ridge will help limit
convective activity, likely keeping PoPs lower than as of late. On
the other hand, this will also allow temperatures to freely climb
into the mid-upper 90s. Thus, the primary hazard concern with this
setup would be the threat of excessive heat, with triple-digit
apparent temperatures for most (if not all) locations across the CWA
by the weekend. While shower and thunderstorm activity should be
limited and significantly more isolated in this setup, gusty winds
would be a concern should any storms develop given the likely drier
mid-level air present and thus elevated DCAPE values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The two forecast challenges will be extent of reduced cigs/vsbys
around sunrise Tuesday, then the extent of afternoon
thunderstorms.

With no change in the character of the low-level air mass, have
trended toward persistence in forecasting reductions to cigs and
vsbys in the hours around sunrise.

Regarding thunderstorms, a drier mid-level air mass will
overspread the TLH, ECP, ABY, and VLD on Tuesday, especially
compared with the very moist air mass of late. Expecting
considerably fewer storms near these terminals on Tuesday. For
now, have gone with a thunder-free forecast.

Meanwhile, DHN will still be the last to hang on to deeper
moisture, and it will likely be near the southeast edge of a
region of more prolific afternoon thunder over Alabama. Have
therefore included DHN in a TEMPO for thunder on Tue afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending into the Gulf
will result in a light south to southwest flow for the next
several days, becoming more westerly by the end of the week. Daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms continue, especially during
the overnight and morning hours each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Widespread wetting rains over the last few days preclude any fire
weather concerns. Higher mixing heights due to lower coverage of
storms will lead to some high dispersions across SW Georgia and the
FL Big Bend on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Some locally heavy downpours remain possible in afternoon showers
and storms. Given the slow motion of storms and some training,
some quick ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of low-
lying areas is possible. Flash flood guidance is around 2-3 inches
in 1 hour or 3-4 inches within 3 hours. Widespread flood concerns
are not anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  91  73  92 /  10  40   0  40
Panama City   78  89  78  90 /  20  40  10  30
Dothan        73  90  72  92 /  10  50   0  30
Albany        73  92  72  93 /  10  40  10  30
Valdosta      73  93  73  94 /  10  30  10  30
Cross City    72  92  72  93 /  10  50  10  30
Apalachicola  78  87  78  88 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs