168
FXUS62 KTAE 170024
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
824 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Updated the PoP forecast to account for latest radar trends, but
otherwise the previous forecast appears to be on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The tropical low known as Invest AL93 is moving west this
afternoon just offshore the Emerald Coast. It will not develop
into a tropical depression before getting well west of our
forecast area, if at all. Nonetheless, we will be on its eastern
flank through Thursday. So regardless of development, we will be
in deep southerly flow, and the air mass will remain very moist.
PW values of 2+ inches will be common.

Quite a few showers and thunderstorms are dotting the region this
afternoon, and most places are getting at least a few passing
showers this afternoon. With tropical rain processes in play and
respectable moisture transport, rainfall rates can be impressive,
even in lower-topped convective cells. Where you get higher-topped
convection, torrential rainfall rates can be expected. If cells
start to line up in more solid confluent or curved bands, then
flooding would become a concern.

So look for ongoing convection to fade quickly late this afternoon
and early this evening, as convection works over the inland air
mass. Convection will reignite late tonight and on Thursday
morning over the bathwater-warm Gulf waters. Quick southerly flow
will push convection onshore and into coastal communities well
before sunrise. Convection will start to spread further inland as
soon as we pass sunrise, spreading north of the FL state line by
late morning.

Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common,
with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection
trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain
somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring
isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less
serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The area of low pressure over the Gulf will have moved westward out
of our waters and an upper level ridge will be building to our east.
The Bermuda high, also to our east, will continue with southerly
flow for the short term. During the day Friday, showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon hours along the
sea breeze. PWATs will be around 2 inches, so heavy downpours will
be possible with any storms. PoPs for Friday range from 60-80
percent, with highest chances along and south of I-10. Temperatures
on Friday will be subdued from the rain and clouds, with highs in
the mid-90s and heat indices should remain below advisory criteria.
Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

High pressure will continue to build over the weekend into the start
of next week. Temperatures will be gradually increasing while PoPs
values will gradually decrease. However, PoPs will become more
diurnally driven with the afternoon sea breeze. Warming
temperatures will bring back heat advisories for this weekend
through next week, but we will be monitoring based on how much
mixing is expected during the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the
upper 90s for the highs, and mid-70s for the overnight lows. PoPs
this weekend range from 30-50 percent, then increase to around 50-70
percent for the start of the work week as PWATs increase with added
tropical moisture moving in from the East Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening and into the early
hours of Thursday. MVFR/IFR cigs will become increasingly likely
after 04z across ECP/DHN and persist through at least sunrise.
Further east, MVFR cigs are possible but confidence was not high
enough to mention in the TAF at VLD/TLH/ABY. Showers and storms
will potentially be quick to develop in the morning with
showers/storms potentially moving in before sunrise at ECP and in
the morning hours at DHN/TLH. While VFR conditions will likely
prevail late in the morning and into the afternoon, showers and
storms will likely bring brief MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Southerly breezes will increase over the waters tonight, becoming
fresh on Thursday morning as we get squeezed between departing low
pressure to our west and high pressure east of Florida. The
summertime Bermuda ridge axis will expand westward on Friday and
Saturday across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf,
persisting through Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will continue for the
foreseeable future. Areas of high dispersion are expected on
Thursday afternoon due to enhanced southerly transport winds. A
warming trend will get underway on Friday, with much above normal
temperatures starting Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Isolated flash flooding will be a concern through Friday, mainly
over our FL counties.

Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common,
with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection
trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain
somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring
isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less
serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways.

Thunderstorm coverage will decrease over the weekend, then build
during the first half of next week. Most any summer thunderstorm
is capable of intense rainfall rates that can lead to short-lived
nuisance flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  91  76  93 /  20  50  10  80
Panama City   78  89  79  91 /  40  80  40  70
Dothan        75  91  74  95 /  10  60   0  60
Albany        74  94  74  96 /  10  40   0  60
Valdosta      75  95  75  96 /  10  40  10  60
Cross City    73  93  74  93 /  20  60  10  60
Apalachicola  79  87  80  89 /  50  80  30  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 4 AM CDT Thursday through late
     Thursday night for FLZ108.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner