042
FNUS72 KTAE 061231
FWSTAE

Spot Forecast for RX pile...State of Florida park service
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
831 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on October 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

As of mid-morning, some low clouds with passing light showers
offshore were observed. The latter may graze the burn site, but
chances are low. Better potential for showers with perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm is later this afternoon roughly in the 5PM
to 8PM CDT time frame. Locally heavy downpours and gusty/erratic
winds are possible. Otherwise, good to fair dispersions are
forecast today under a prevailing east to SE wind. Expect warm and
humid conditions as minimum RH ranges from 75-80%. Drier weather
prevails tomorrow.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of
                    showers through the day. Chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................30 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 8 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 17 mph.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....24 increasing to 33 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM
Sky (%).........65  55  55  55  44  44  44  46  46  46
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............30  30  30  30  40  40  40  50  50  50
Temp............70  72  75  78  81  82  83  84  83  83
RH..............100 100 97  91  82  79  77  74  77  77
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.18  20  18  18  17  17  16  16  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.16  16  17  17  16  14  13  12  12  10
Dispersion......24  35  35  35  35  35  35  30  30  30
LVORI...........5   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the evening.
CWR.................40 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 15 mph.
LVORI...............5.
Dispersion index....16.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM
Sky (%).........40  40  40  41  41  41  19  19  19  31  31  31
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............40  40  40  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............83  81  78  76  75  74  74  73  73  73  72  71
RH..............77  82  91  94  97  97  93  97  97  93  97  100
20 FT wind dir..SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.13  12  10  12  13  14  15  15  16  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Transp wind dir.SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   10  13  14  15  15  15  15  15  15
Dispersion......19  19  19  13  13  13  13  13  13  12  12  12
LVORI...........3   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 15 mph.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....19 increasing to 29 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM
Sky (%).........29  29  29  31  31  31  24  24  24  22  22  22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............71  71  71  73  77  80  82  83  85  85  85  85
RH..............97  97  97  97  88  79  74  74  70  70  70  70
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7   6   5
20 FT wind gust.16  16  15  15  16  16  15  14  13  13  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.6
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.15  15  14  14  14  13  12  10  9   9   8   7
Dispersion......19  19  19  31  31  31  32  32  32  25  25  25
LVORI...........5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Gonzalez
Requested by...Kyle Bass
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523016.0/TAE
.DELDT 10/06/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.bass@floridadep.gov