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FNUS72 KTAE 151215
FWSTAE

Spot Forecast for Pigeon Creek Fire...Florida Forest Service
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
815 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on June 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-106 TODAY AND AROUND 100 TOMORROW...

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure should keep precipitation at bay today; however, the
breeze might have enough influence to create a few isolated showers
or thunderstorms this afternoon. Otherwise, moisture slowly begins
to creep in overnight which could lead to some isolated showers or
thunderstorms. Precipitation chances increase as we head into
Sunday with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
being possible. Heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, and lightning
will be possible with any storms that develop. Outside of that, the
only other potential fire weather concern are the dispersion values
today. There`s a tight gradient that sets up near shower where
dispersions will be favorable, but north of that gradient dispersion
values rapidly increase. Should high dispersions sag closer, we
could see dispersions in excess of 75.

In terms of the wind forecast, look for light winds of about 5mph
or less from the north to northeast to continue through the morning.
Winds will take on a southeasterly to southerly component by the
afternoon and increase leading to sustained speeds of about 8-12mph
with gusts to 12-18 mph possible. Winds will begin to decrease around
sunset and likely become calm and variable overnight. By early
Sunday morning light and variable winds become easterly and around
5mph after sunrise. The seabreeze is expected to pick up to about
8-12mph mid to late morning with gusts up to 12 to 18 mph during
the afternoon. MinRH values for today are around 39 to 48 percent
and should have near excellent recovery tonight. Tomorrow, the
moisture surge will keep minRH values higher and around 60 to 70
percent.


.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   2   2   3   4   10  10  17  17
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
Temp............77  82  87  91  93  94  95  95  94  92
RH..............79  72  65  56  52  47  48  49  53  58
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   3   3   3   5   5   5   6   9   9
20 FT wind gust.6   7   7   7   8   9   10  13  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.6 2.7 3.8 4.4 5.0 5.6 4.6 3.5 2.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.7   8   8   9   9   9   10  10  13  13
Dispersion......7   15  27  43  49  54  59  55  47  37
LVORI...........4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17  17  10  6   7   7   8   10  17  17  17  19
Weather cov.....SCH SCH                         SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW                          RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH                         SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............20  20  0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20
LAL.............2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Temp............92  89  87  85  84  82  80  79  78  78  78  77
RH..............58  64  70  75  77  82  85  91  91  91  91  94
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  E
20 FT wind spd..9   8   6   5   5   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.16  15  13  10  8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  13  12  10  10  9   9   8   8   8   7   7
Dispersion......36  32  8   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
LVORI...........1   2   3   3   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6

.SUNDAY...
TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21  27  34  38  42  50  56  60  63  66  70  72
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20  20  30  30  30  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
LAL.............2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............77  77  77  82  85  87  89  89  90  90  90  89
RH..............90  90  97  85  77  72  68  66  64  64  64  66
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   5   5   6   7   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   9   12  14  15  17  17  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   9   10  13  14  14  15  15  15  15
Dispersion......3   3   13  23  37  49  44  42  37  36  38  39
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...Rogacheski
Requested by...Brandon McAlpin
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416160.0/TAE
.DELDT 06/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brandon.mcalpin@fdacs.gov