Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
192
FNUS72 KTAE 141145
FWSTAE
Spot Forecast for SMR Unit 409...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
745 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
The main concerns today will be the hot temperatures, high dispersions
this afternoon, and the chance of afternoon thunderstorms which will
produce gusty and erratic winds should one move near the burn location.
The 20 foot winds will be light away from thunderstorms with transport
winds out of the north.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the morning. Chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 98.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 13 mph.
LVORI...............3.
Dispersion index....17 increasing to 34 late in the morning, then
increasing to 46 late in the morning increasing
to 62 early in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15 3 3 1 5 27 38 44 32 48
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10 10 10 20 20 30 40 50 50 50
Temp............78 83 87 91 92 94 96 98 96 93
RH..............88 80 72 60 56 51 46 45 49 52
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW N N N NW NW NW W
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.14 13 13 13 12 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.6 5.8 6.4 5.6 4.2 2.8
Transp wind dir.NW NW N N N N N N NW NW
Transp wind spd.12 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 10 10
Dispersion......12 21 34 46 59 65 65 61 52 38
LVORI...........5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms late
in the afternoon.
CWR.................40 percent increasing to 50 percent early in
the evening, then decreasing to 10 percent later
in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft
AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 10 mph.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....23 decreasing to 4.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........38 48 53 50 47 39 51 44 42 41 32 25
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
CWR.............40 40 50 40 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............91 89 87 84 83 82 81 80 79 79 78 78
RH..............54 61 70 77 80 79 82 85 88 88 91 91
20 FT wind dir..W W W SW NW SW W W NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW W W W NW NW NW NW N
Transp wind spd.10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6
Dispersion......27 19 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
LVORI...........2 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
the morning, then showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 9 mph shifting to the northeast 7 to
8 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
the southeast around 6 mph late in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 22 late in the morning, then
increasing to 34 late in the morning decreasing
to 20 late in the afternoon decreasing to 10.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32 15 18 14 13 12 25 37 50 55 61 66
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF
CWR.............10 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 90 90 90 90
Temp............77 77 79 84 90 92 94 96 96 95 92 89
RH..............90 90 85 77 64 60 54 49 49 53 60 66
20 FT wind dir..NW NW N N N NE NE E E SE S SW
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2
20 FT wind gust.9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.3
Transp wind dir.N N N N N NE NE NE NE E SE S
Transp wind spd.6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 6
Dispersion......3 3 6 11 22 32 36 35 31 24 16 10
LVORI...........6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
$$
Forecaster...Humphreys
Requested by...T. Pollard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2517958.0/TAE
.DELDT 07/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis_pollard@fws.gov