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FNUS72 KTAE 131158
FWSTAE

Spot Forecast for FLSMR Unit 313...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
758 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...A moist and unstable air mass will be in place over
the burn today and Saturday. At the ignition time of 0900, you
will visually see a scattering of distant showers and
thunderstorms. The most likely time for one of these to affect the
burn site would be in the 1100-1400 time frame. After that,
showers and thunderstorms will be well inland of the site. Any
showers and storms will be short-lived, lasting about 30 minutes
or so, followed by the return of sunshine. A lull in overall
activity is expected this evening. Thunderstorms will then blossom
over the warm Gulf waters during the early morning hours Saturday,
with southerly flow pushing those across the burn site after
sunrise Saturday morning. Otherwise, a south-southeasterly
seabreeze will kick in today and Saturday around 1000-1100,
peaking around mid-afternoon with gusts near 15 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30  39  40  48  59  61  50  50  47
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............30  40  40  50  70  70  70  60  60
Temp............81  84  85  86  87  86  86  88  87
RH..............88  77  75  72  70  72  72  68  70
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   5   5   5   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  12  12  13  14  15  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  13  13  14  14  15  15  15  15
Dispersion......26  35  44  47  45  47  50  50  49
LVORI...........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   3

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........40  45  46  65  53  39  50  52  40  53  69  70
Weather cov.....LKY CHC SCH SCH     SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW      RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC SCH SCH     SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............60  50  20  20  10  20  30  40  40  40  30  30
Temp............86  85  83  82  80  80  80  80  79  79  78  78
RH..............72  75  80  85  88  88  88  88  91  88  91  91
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.14  13  12  10  9   8   8   8   8   7   7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  14  14  12  10  9   9   9   9   9   9   9
Dispersion......48  41  10  8   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6

.SATURDAY...
TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........72  69  67  62  62  61  65  73  77  77  77  77
Weather cov.....CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............50  40  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80
Temp............78  77  79  82  84  86  86  85  85  85  85  85
RH..............91  94  91  88  82  75  75  77  77  77  77  77
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   2   2   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.8   9   9   9   9   10  12  12  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  10  12  12  13  13  13  13  12  12  10  10
Dispersion......6   6   18  24  29  33  32  31  29  27  25  23
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Haner
Requested by...James B Winter
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2515908.0/TAE
.DELDT 06/13/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL barton_rye@fws.gov,james_winter@fws.gov