Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
814 FNUS72 KTAE 151215 FWSTAE Spot Forecast for Pigeon Creek Fire...Florida Forest Service National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 815 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on June 15. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. ...HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-106 TODAY AND AROUND 100 TOMORROW... .DISCUSSION... High pressure should keep precipitation at bay today; however, the breeze might have enough influence to create a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. Otherwise, moisture slowly begins to creep in overnight which could lead to some isolated showers or thunderstorms. Precipitation chances increase as we head into Sunday with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms being possible. Heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, and lightning will be possible with any storms that develop. Outside of that, the only other potential fire weather concern are the dispersion values today. There`s a tight gradient that sets up near shower where dispersions will be favorable, but north of that gradient dispersion values rapidly increase. Should high dispersions sag closer, we could see dispersions in excess of 75. In terms of the wind forecast, look for light winds of about 5mph or less from the north to northeast to continue through the morning. Winds will take on a southeasterly to southerly component by the afternoon and increase leading to sustained speeds of about 8-12mph with gusts to 12-18 mph possible. Winds will begin to decrease around sunset and likely become calm and variable overnight. By early Sunday morning light and variable winds become easterly and around 5mph after sunrise. The seabreeze is expected to pick up to about 8-12mph mid to late morning with gusts up to 12 to 18 mph during the afternoon. MinRH values for today are around 39 to 48 percent and should have near excellent recovery tonight. Tomorrow, the moisture surge will keep minRH values higher and around 60 to 70 percent. .REST OF TODAY... TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........2 2 2 2 3 4 10 10 17 17 Weather cov..... SCH SCH Weather type.... RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Temp............77 82 87 91 93 94 95 95 94 92 RH..............79 72 65 56 52 47 48 49 53 58 20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE E E E SE S S S 20 FT wind spd..2 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 9 9 20 FT wind gust.6 7 7 7 8 9 10 13 17 17 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.6 2.7 3.8 4.4 5.0 5.6 4.6 3.5 2.5 Transp wind dir.NE NE E E E E E SE S S Transp wind spd.7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 13 13 Dispersion......7 15 27 43 49 54 59 55 47 37 LVORI...........4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........17 17 10 6 7 7 8 10 17 17 17 19 Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CWR.............20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 LAL.............2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Temp............92 89 87 85 84 82 80 79 78 78 78 77 RH..............58 64 70 75 77 82 85 91 91 91 91 94 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S SE SE E 20 FT wind spd..9 8 6 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT wind gust.16 15 13 10 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.13 13 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 Dispersion......36 32 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 LVORI...........1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 .SUNDAY... TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........21 27 34 38 42 50 56 60 63 66 70 72 Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CWR.............20 20 30 30 30 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 LAL.............2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Temp............77 77 77 82 85 87 89 89 90 90 90 89 RH..............90 90 97 85 77 72 68 66 64 64 64 66 20 FT wind dir..E E E E E SE SE SE S S S S 20 FT wind spd..2 2 3 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 20 FT wind gust.6 6 7 8 9 12 14 15 17 17 18 17 Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 Transp wind dir.S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S Transp wind spd.7 7 7 9 10 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 Dispersion......3 3 13 23 37 49 44 42 37 36 38 39 LVORI...........6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $$ Forecaster...Rogacheski Requested by...Brandon McAlpin Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2416160.0/TAE .DELDT 06/15/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL brandon.mcalpin@fdacs.gov