479
FNUS72 KTAE 150850
FWSTAE

Spot Forecast for SMR Unit 216 Pile burn...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
450 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
The main concerns today will be the hot temperatures and afternoon
thunderstorms. The best chance of thunderstorms is expected
from mid afternoon through early evening with gusty and erratic winds
near storms. Winds outside of storms will be light today with northeast
transport winds. Peak heat index values are expected to be near 108F
this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 8 mph.
LVORI...............3.
Dispersion index....14 increasing to 45 in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  16  16  23  23  23  43  43  43
Weather cov.....            CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF
CWR.............10  10  10  50  50  50  80  80  80
Temp............82  86  88  90  92  94  96  93  89
RH..............85  75  68  66  60  54  49  56  64
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.7   7   8   8   8   9   9   10  9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.5 2.1 3.2 4.2 4.8 4.4 3.4 2.4
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E
Transp wind spd.6   5   5   6   8   8   8   8   7
Dispersion......14  14  14  47  47  47  43  43  43
LVORI...........5   4   3   3   2   1   2   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    evening.
CWR.................70 percent decreasing to 40 percent late in the
                    evening.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 mph.
LVORI...............5.
Dispersion index....16 decreasing to 4 in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........53  53  53  67  67  67  49  49  49  76  76  76
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC             SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW              RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC             SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............70  70  70  40  40  40  10  10  10  20  20  20
Temp............88  88  85  83  82  80  80  79  78  77  77  76
RH..............66  63  72  80  79  85  85  88  88  90  90  94
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  NW  N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..3   2   2   2   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.9   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   7   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8
Dispersion......16  16  16  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
LVORI...........3   3   4   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................90 percent increasing to 100 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 12 mph shifting to the south 14
                    mph in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
Dispersion index....14 increasing to 44.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........70  70  70  60  60  60  61  61  61  54  54  54
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
CWR.............90  90  90  90  90  90  100 100 100 100 100 100
Temp............76  76  77  80  82  84  85  84  84  84  84  84
RH..............90  90  90  88  85  82  80  82  82  80  80  77
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   3   3   3   5   5   6   7   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.9   10  10  10  12  14  15  16  17  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  12  12  12  13  13  13  14  14  14
Dispersion......14  14  14  32  32  32  37  37  37  44  44  44
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...DVD
Requested by...BArt Rye
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2518036.0/TAE
.DELDT 07/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL barton_rye@fws.gov