Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
893
FNUS72 KTAE 251306
FWSTAE
Spot Forecast for SMR Unit 109...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
906 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
...HIGHER-END GUST POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...One more day of well above normal temperatures and
drier air is expected today, with most districts reaching 95-100
degrees this afternoon. Be aware that there are multiple factors
pointing to higher-end gust potential in thunderstorms from this
afternoon through tonight. Also, storms could also be quick to form,
and they will have a fast forward motion from northeast to
southwest. This means you could have very little time between first
hearing thunder and the onset of wind gusts and lightning at your
location. From Thursday through this weekend, a weak upper low will
spin across the region. This will break the ongoing heat wave, and
it will tap into a very moist air mass to produce daily rounds of
afternoon thunderstorms with torrential downpours.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 20 percent early in the
afternoon, then increasing to 40 percent in the
afternoon.
Temperature.........83 at ignition...Max 97.
RH..................80 percent at ignition...Min 48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 2 mph at ignition...otherwise
Northeast winds around 5 mph becoming south at 8
mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4200 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 7 mph shifting to the east early
in the afternoon, then shifting to the
southwest late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Dispersion index....19 increasing to 32 late in the morning.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24 19 6 12 34 45 40 40 39
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 10 10 20 40 40 40 40
Temp............83 88 91 94 95 94 94 95 92
RH..............80 70 60 51 48 51 51 49 56
20 FT wind dir..N N N NE E SE S S S
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 5 5 5 7 8 8
20 FT wind gust.3 3 3 5 7 8 9 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7
Transp wind dir.N N NE NE E E SE S SW
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
Dispersion......15 23 31 32 34 36 34 29 27
LVORI...........4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms through the night.
CWR.................40 percent chance.
Temperature.........Min 74.
RH..................Max 97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 10 mph shifting to the north 6
to 10 mph overnight.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....22 decreasing to 5 early in the evening.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........37 37 48 55 52 51 48 67 43 34 37 29
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Temp............91 89 86 83 81 80 80 79 78 77 77 76
RH..............56 59 63 72 79 79 82 85 88 88 88 90
20 FT wind dir..S SW SW W NW N N NW W NW N N
20 FT wind spd..6 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3
20 FT wind gust.9 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 5 5 6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW W NW NW N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.8 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 9 10
Dispersion......24 20 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly Cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
numerous showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 70 percent.
Temperature.........Max 93.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast
5 to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....10 increasing to 22 in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........37 42 25 27 33 38 43 47 52 48 45 41
Weather cov.....SCH CHC SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM
CWR.............20 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 70 70 70 70
Temp............74 76 76 80 84 86 88 89 90 90 89 87
RH..............97 90 94 88 74 68 61 59 56 56 57 61
20 FT wind dir..NE NE E E S SW SW S S S SW SW
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.6 5 5 3 3 5 7 9 10 10 9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE E SE SE SE SE SE S S S
Transp wind spd.10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8
Dispersion......5 5 9 13 14 14 17 20 25 26 26 26
LVORI...........6 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2
$$
Forecaster...Godsey
Requested by...T. Pollard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516647.0/TAE
.DELDT 06/25/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis_pollard@fws.gov