102
FXUS62 KTBW 061150
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
650 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog through Saturday morning across west central
  and southwest Florida.

- Rain chances increase through the weekend.

- Cooler and drier conditions return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Widespread dense fog continues to impact all terminals through 15Z
with LIFR CIGs/VSBYs. The low ceilings and fog will lift by mid
morning with VFR conditions expected the remainder of the day. Fog
and low ceilings are possible once again early Sunday morning, so we
will likely see more impacts to the terminals during that time as
well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025
Very favorable conditions the remainder of the night for areas of
dense fog to develop. A dense fog advisory has been issued until
10 AM across all of west central and southwest Florida including
the near shore waters including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A
narrow band of light showers is currently located just north of
Tampa Bay and the adjacent coastal waters and is currently aiding
in mixing the boundary layer in that region preventing fog
formation. However, as the night progresses and the showers
dissipate, boundary layer conditions will become favorable for fog
development in this region as well.

The fog will lift by mid morning across the forecast area...but
may linger over the waters a bit longer. A chance of showers will
develop Saturday afternoon mainly from the Tampa Bay area and
north.

Over the weekend, an U/L ridge which has been over the region for
the past several days will be suppressed south and east of the
area as a mean broad trough develops over the eastern half of the
U.S., which will gradually sink south over the Gulf and Florida.
An associated cold front over the southeast U.S. will also
gradually sink south across the Florida peninsula late in the
weekend, with an increasing chance of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms late Sunday and Sunday night.

Surface high pressure will build over west central and southwest
Florida in the wake of the cold front Monday and Monday night with
drier cooler air advecting over the area on gusty north to
northwest winds. The area of high pressure will hold over the
region through mid week.

The U/L trough/lower heights will persist over the forecast area
through mid week, which will keep temperatures near climatic
normals with highs in the mid to upper 60s north to the mid 70s
south...and lows in the 40s north, lower to mid 50s central, and
upper 50s to around 60 south. A gradual warming trend will develop
late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025
High pressure will hold over the waters today with winds and seas
below cautionary levels. A cold front will push across the waters
late in the weekend with winds shifting to the north/northwest in
the wake of the front and increasing to cautionary levels.
Winds/seas will subside Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  68  79  68 /  30  40  60  80
FMY  83  67  83  70 /   0  10  10  60
GIF  84  65  82  66 /  30  30  50  70
SRQ  80  66  80  67 /  20  30  40  80
BKV  80  59  79  60 /  40  40  70  80
SPG  79  68  78  68 /  30  40  50  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters.


&&

$$

AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery