816
FXUS62 KTBW 070720
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
320 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Currently at the surface, a weak area of low pressure is lingering
over the eastern Gulf, with southwest low level flow continuing to
pump deep moisture into the forecast area through at least mid week.
This will result in numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms, with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall leading to
flooding each day as training storms allow a few spots to accumulate
several inches of rain. Rainfall timing for the next few days
will look similar to yesterday, with overnight showers and a few
storms over the eastern Gulf pushing into the coast at times
during the early morning hours, then the focus of convection will
shift to over the Florida Peninsula during the afternoon.
Otherwise, the rain and clouds will keep afternoon temperatures
slightly below normal, with highs from the mid 80s to around 90.

By mid week, a mid level trough will slowly swing into the
southeastern US then will lose steam during the second half of the
week. At the surface, this will pull a weak frontal boundary south
into the Florida Peninsula. This will bring a drier airmass into the
Nature Coast Friday and Saturday, but without the benefit of
stronger upper level support, numerous storm coverage is still
expected south of Interstate 4.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Showers and a few storms over the eastern Gulf are already
pushing onshore into the vicinity of southwest Florida area
terminals early this morning, and could cause periods of
disruptions through the rest of the morning. Thunderstorm chances
will increase across the area in the early afternoon, but the
highest rain chances are expected to largely shift inland by
around 22-23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

A weak surface area of low pressure will continue to swirl over
the eastern and central Gulf waters throughout the first half of
the week, bringing scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day.
Timing of rain chances will be mainly in the overnight and morning
hours, then thunderstorms will develop over the Florida Peninsula
in the afternoon, with a few storms possibly shifting back into
the coastal waters during the evening. Late next week, easterly
winds should favor a more typical afternoon thunderstorm pattern.
No headlines are expected, although daily thunderstorms will
produce locally hazardous winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Deep moisture holding over the area will bring scattered to
numerous thunderstorms each of the next couple of days. No
humidity concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  89  76  88 /  40  70  50  70
FMY  76  89  75  89 /  40  70  50  70
GIF  75  90  75  89 /  30  70  40  70
SRQ  75  88  74  88 /  30  70  60  70
BKV  72  89  72  88 /  40  80  50  70
SPG  77  87  76  87 /  40  70  60  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming