612
FXUS62 KTBW 291141
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
741 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

The morning is off to a quiet start with the frontal boundary
stationary once again over N Florida. As the sun has come up, some
fog has developed across the Nature Coast and N Florida, but that is
likely to erode very rapidly with daytime heating now getting
underway. Overall, conditions continue to look quiet for the
morning. With the exception of the northernmost Nature Coast and
East Central Florida, quiet is the theme of the day.

Early 12Z sounding suggests the moisture has not quite rebounded
yet. This is further supported by TPA ACARS soundings from this
morning showing a PWAT of less than 1.5 inches. Thus, most of the
area looks warm and dry today. Only farther to the east where the
moisture is likely to be higher and the convergence greater will
there be storms. This remains consistent with the current forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

No major convective impacts are expected for the next 24 hours as
drier air limits the ability for thunderstorms to form until they
are east of terminals. However, there could be some storms tomorrow
as moisture returns. It doesn`t look like this will take place until
after 18Z, thus keeping the forecast dry for now. With that late
timing and a WSW flow expected, it may still end up being too late
for impacts at west coast terminals. However, continued increasing
moisture on Sunday and into early next week favors scattered to
numerous storms begin Sunday morning, and thus a higher potential
for impacts will be likely late in the weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Pattern aloft continues to feature longwave troughing over the E
U.S. extending south into FL while a quasi-stationary surface
boundary continues to linger near the panhandle. No large scale
overall change anticipated through the weekend and much of next
week, however embedded shortwave impulses propagating through the
westerly flow over the N Gulf region will bring periods of
increased moisture and rainfall chances across the peninsula,
particularly late this weekend into early next week. PWATs remain
in the 1.5-1.75 inch range currently per latest sounding and meso-
analysis, but are expected to increase into the 1.75-2 inch range
on Saturday before approaching 2+ inches for most of the area
during the Sunday through Tuesday period as the surface boundary
settles southward over the peninsula in response to persistent
shortwave impulses digging E-ESE over the SE U.S. over the weekend
and early next week. Resulting deep layer W/SW flow over the area
will favor numerous to potentially widespread showers and storms
Sunday through Tuesday, with localized flooding possible in urban,
low lying and poor drainage areas. For today, generally scattered
afternoon and evening showers and storms will be likely,
primarily affecting interior locations along with Nature Coast and
SWFL locations, with lower rain chances toward the coast,
particularly across WCFL. Similar setup and areas favored for
Saturday but with higher overall chances, with both today and
Saturday featuring Marginal Risk ERO areas highlighted by WPC
across northern Nature Coast and far interior locations, followed
by the Marginal Risk expanding on Sunday through Tuesday to
include most the peninsula. Approaching mid week there are
indications that relatively drier air attempts to filter southward
into the peninsula as the boundary may get enough of a southward
push to sink closer to S FL by mid week as yet another shortwave
impulse digs across the Srn/SE U.S., however uncertainty in the
details remains at this time range. High temps remain somewhat
tempered by likely cloud cover through much of the period, with
highs in the lower to mid 90s today dropping a few degrees into
the upper 80s to lower 90s over the weekend, followed by the upper
80s early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A lingering frontal boundary will remain near the waters through
the weekend with gradually increasing rain chances. Winds and seas
are expected to remain below cautionary levels, with locally
higher winds and seas in/near showers and storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A lingering frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity into next
week with gradually increasing rain chances and scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the weekend.
RH values are expected to remain above critical thresholds with
winds remaining light, with no significant fire weather concerns
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  89  77 /  40  20  70  40
FMY  93  76  91  76 /  50  30  70  30
GIF  93  75  91  75 /  60  20  80  20
SRQ  90  75  89  76 /  30  20  60  40
BKV  91  72  89  72 /  40  20  70  30
SPG  89  77  86  77 /  30  20  60  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW