494
FXUS62 KTBW 172350
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
750 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 736 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025
High pressure surface and aloft remains over the Florida
peninsula, with the surface ridge axis across north Florida. This
continues to create southeast boundary layer flow across the
peninsula, which holds the west coast sea breeze boundary
generally over the coastal counties. The east coast sea breeze
boundary is slowly making its way across the interior, and is
expected to collide with the west coast sea breeze in the next few
hours. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over
the coastal counties later this evening...however, the limiting
factor is dry air aloft which will decrease overall areal coverage
of showers/storms. Wind gusts around 40 MPH will be possible with
any stronger storms due to the dry air aloft.

Scattered showers and storms will push offshore around or shortly
after midnight...with skies becoming mostly clear later tonight
across the forecast area, with typical summertime warm rather
humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Plenty of building Cu`s across across the Sunshine State. ACARs
sounding showing just above an inch, which explains why we haven`t
seen any shower activity as of yet. High pressure remains in
control keeping southeasterly flow in place. Hi- Res models
continue to bring pockets of higher moisture late this afternoon
and evening. If there is enough instability available when this
occurs we should see at least some convection develop, especially
across SW portions of the peninsula. Afternoon highs are expected
to be near to just above normal in the low to mid 90s with heat
indices in the triple digits.

On Wednesday, similar conditions are anticipated with PWs
increasing later in the day as dry air caps storm coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

During the long term, moisture gradually increases as approaching
upper level disturbance attempts to push persistent ridge east.
Slightly higher rain chances should be supported with increase in
moisture, ample instability and the sea breeze. A more easterly
flow sets up continuing to support showers across the area and
with more coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening will create LCL
MVFR CIGs/VSBYs...and may briefly impact any terminal. Decreasing
cloudiness after midnight with predominately VFR conditions
expected the remainder of tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

High pressure continue to dominate across the area. Winds will
continue out of the southeast through the period mainly between 5
to 10 knots. The only exception to this will be this afternoon in
the offshore waters where winds could get to 10 to 15 knots.
Southeasterly flow will bring the best chance for thunderstorms in
the evening and overnight hours as storms get pushed off the
coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Drier air remains in place across the region keeping lower rain
chances across fire districts today and Wednesday. Moisture
gradually increases towards the end of the week, which should
support more storm coverage. Southeasterly winds prevail and under
this flow showers and storms develop later in the afternoon and
evening. Humidity remains above critical values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  94  79  93 /  20  20  30  40
FMY  75  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  40
GIF  76  95  77  95 /  30  20  10  40
SRQ  76  93  76  92 /  20  20  30  40
BKV  72  96  72  94 /  20  20  30  40
SPG  78  91  79  91 /  10  20  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis