Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
234 FXUS62 KTBW 231417 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 917 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense late night and early morning fog into next week. - Cooler and drier conditions late in the week. && .UPDATE... Patchy dense fog and low clouds early this morning have mixed out and burned off leaving warm and humid conditions for the rest of today. Some additional widespread low cloud cover remains over N FL due to moisture pooling ahead of the weak frontal boundary in S GA as well. The front is expected to sag Sward into the FL Peninsula late today and tonight. No changes to ongoing grids and forecasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions have returned areawide with light winds and mostly sunny skies today into tonight. Another night of patchy dense fog and low clouds likely aft 06Z tonight into Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 A weak cold front will sink south across the region today with the only change being that winds will shift to the north and northwest. The front will stall across south central Florida tonight, and return north as a warm front Monday and Monday night. Pooling of moisture in the proximity of the frontal boundary may increase the likelihood of fog development tonight and Monday night across west central Florida. Winds will veer to the southeast on Tuesday as surface high pressure over the western Atlantic retreats from the region. A cold front will push across the Florida peninsula late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Deep layer moisture will be limited, and dry conditions will prevail...but can`t rule out a stray light shower. Much cooler drier air will advect across the forecast area in the wake of the front late in the week with temperatures dropping below climatic normals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 A weak cold front will sink south across the waters today with winds becoming north to northwest. High pressure will build back over the waters on Monday. A stronger cold front will move across the waters mid week. Winds/seas will remain relatively light through Wednesday, but will increase in the wake of the cold front mid week with cautionary levels likely...and may approach advisory levels on portions of the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. Light winds will lead to poor dispersion across portions of west central and southwest Florida today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 82 66 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 65 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 84 64 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 81 64 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 82 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 80 67 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce