665
FXUS62 KTBW 291727
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
127 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A longwave trough axis is centered over Southern Quebec,
stretching down through the Mid-Atlantic and off the E Coast. An
upper-level ridge is also situated over the Great Plains. In
between these two features, weak shortwave perturbations are
propagating through the flow, moving from west to east. At the
surface, a weak stationary boundary is situated across the N Gulf
Coast and stretching out into the Atlantic. The latest surface
analysis suggests this boundary is situated across the FL Big Bend
region and North FL.

West Central and Southwest Florida is situated to the south of this
boundary where a WSW flow prevails. The sfc-3km flow is of moderate
strength today, running around 10 knots per the 12Z sounding. With a
flow that strong, there is really no meaningful west coast sea
breeze, and thus no moisture pooling to facilitate thunderstorms
development. This is despite a sampling of 1.74 inches in the
aforementioned sounding. However, the overall depth of moisture
remains a problem as well. Until deeper moisture moves into the
region, this also poses somewhat of a limiting factor on
convective development.

Thus, most of the area is favored to stay dry this afternoon and
evening, especially along the coast. The farther north, and the
farther east one goes, the chances do increase. However, most are
unlikely to see any meaningful rainfall today. As such, it looks
like a fairly warm afternoon across the region. Not atypical, but
also not one that will readily cool this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

On Saturday, the trough axis over Quebec is expected to deepen and
slowly shift. As the trough digs, it will push the stationary
boundary farther southward. This will deepen and increase the
moisture available for thunderstorms across the region. Rain chances
begin to increase on Saturday, but it is more of a transition day.
So the expectation is for more storms, but still mainly across the
interior and the Nature Coast.

By Sunday, the expectation is that the deeper moisture will be
across a larger swath of the state, with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms likely areawide. Because of the WSW flow, this will
again favor thunderstorms earlier in the day along the coast,
transitioning inland later in the day. This will, however, depend on
the exact position of the frontal boundary. If it sinks a little
farther south and more of a NE flow comes in, then this could
complicate the setup.

Some flavor of this looks to remain through the entirety of the
upcoming work week. The frontal boundary looks to wobble back-and-
forth through the week, and this could lead to some day-to-day
variation of the setup. Overall, though, the week ahead is favored
to be cloudier and rainier, much like the pattern was last week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

No major convective impacts are expected through tonight. However,
there could be some storms tomorrow as moisture returns. For the
most part, the expectation is that this won`t take place before 18Z,
and any window near the coast will be confined to a couple hours.
However, continued increasing moisture on Sunday and into early next
week favors scattered to numerous storms beginning Sunday morning,
and thus a higher potential for impacts will be likely late in the
weekend and into early next week.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Quiet boating conditions today will give way to an unsettled pattern
across Gulf Waters over the weekend and into early next week as a
frontal boundary sinks south. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at nearly any time beginning late
Saturday and into Sunday, with locally hazardous winds and seas in
the vicinity. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will flip flop in the
coming days, but should generally remain below 15 knots with seas
around 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Increasing moisture and thus increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms will take place over the weekend as a weak frontal
boundary brings additional moisture and instability into the area.
Scattered to numerous storms are expected each day, with the
greatest potential for storms near the coast generally in the
morning to early afternoon, with the higher chances inland during
the afternoon and evening across the interior. With ample moisture
across the region, fire weather concerns will remain low through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  90  78  89 /  10  40  20  70
FMY  76  92  76  90 /  20  60  20  70
GIF  76  92  75  90 /  20  60  20  80
SRQ  76  90  76  89 /  10  40  20  70
BKV  72  89  72  88 /  10  60  20  70
SPG  78  88  77  86 /  10  40  20  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery