146
FXUS62 KTBW 271838
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
238 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Southwest flow has returned. An upper-level low continues to be
centered over the FL peninsula, streaming deep tropical moisture
across the region. The morning sounding showed a PWAT of 1.86 inches
across the region, with rather even moisture distribution through
the column. Thus, another warm, humid afternoon is underway.

However, overall shower and thunderstorm activity is more limited,
due to the WSW flow. This is because there is no west coast sea
breeze development taking place. So while the atmosphere remains
warm, moist, and conditionally unstable, there are limited forcing
mechanisms to initiate thunderstorms this afternoon. The storms that
have formed have done so primarily along remnant boundaries from
overnight convection. A few storms have developed in NE Pinellas
County along the Bay Breeze (which has still been able to develop
with the SW flow not being too strong).

With the flow shifting, the best chance to see storms will generally
be in the morning for coastal communities. However, with the
limited forcing, they will probably be more isolated to scattered
in nature through the weekend. As the moisture grows even deeper
later next week, then rain chances will increase as very little
forcing will be needed with such a saturated atmosphere.

As have already alluded to, we are locked into a WSW flow pattern
for some time. The upper-level low will be absorbed back into the
flow over the next day, but another low retrogrades into the area by
early next week. This will reinforce the WSW flow - and perhaps
enhance the overall moisture towards the end of the week. Overall,
though, one should expect earlier thunderstorms and warm, humid
conditions to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Thunderstorms are generally pushing inland now around the Tampa Bay
area as a WSW flow continues. However, a lighter more southerly flow
in SWFL does still support additional thunderstorm activity later
this afternoon and into the evening. A similar pattern will repeat
for the days to come as a WSW flow continues.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Coastal showers and thunderstorms become more prevalent in the
morning hours as the flow veers to a south and eventually southwest
direction for the next week. These storms should generally
transition inland during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds
generally remain below 15 knots outside of thunderstorms, with seas
of 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A predominantly W to WSW flow is settling in for the days to come,
keeping dewpoints and subsequently RH values high. Overall rain
chances near the coast will diminish, however; but the best chance
to see a storm near the coast will be in the morning hours. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  90 /  40  50  40  70
FMY  75  94  76  92 /  40  70  40  70
GIF  75  94  75  91 /  40  70  40  80
SRQ  76  91  76  91 /  40  50  40  70
BKV  71  93  72  91 /  30  60  40  70
SPG  78  90  78  88 /  40  50  40  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery