Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
470 FXUS62 KTBW 081250 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 850 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions continue through the week. - Limited heat risk with hot and humid conditions through the end of the week. - Drier and slightly cooler conditions to end the weekend into early next week. .UPDATE... Issued at 850 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Mostly clear skies across the region early this morning with drier air, precipitable water less than 1.5 inches, across much of the area. Some deeper moisture is expected to creep back into southwest Florida this afternoon and evening, helping to bring a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm into this area. Otherwise, not much more than an isolated light shower/sprinkle is expected across the remainder of the area today. Current forecast looks good with no adjustments needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 850 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF forecast period, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could potentially cause some brief MVFR/local IFR conditions at the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW. Also, late tonight into early Thursday morning there is a possibility of some MVFR ceilings around the Tampa Bay and I-4 corridor. East to northeast winds will increase to around 10 knots with some higher gusts this morning and continue into this evening before diminishing to 4 to 7 knots late this evening into early Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Large upper ridging extends from the W Gulf over the N FL Peninsula and into the W Atlantic. Mid to upper level drying continues to expand from N FL over the area through C FL as seen in WV imagery, FL soundings and ACARs data. Some deeper moisture remains over S FL to keep rain chances for mainly low topped showers SW and S FL locations this afternoon and Thursday. Temps will continue to remain above climate normals into the 90s with dew points in the 70s to produce a limited heat risk during afternoon hours. A shortwave trough will dig into the SE US Thursday deepen and meander overhead through the weekend and into early next week bringing a pattern chance to the region. A cold front is expected move into Florida Friday then exit S FL Saturday with a chance of showers or a few storms ahead of and along the front. High pressure building into the region will bring a slightly cooler and drier airmass to the area this weekend for FL fall like conditions. Low temperatures drop into the low to mid 60s and highs will be in the low to mid 80s into next week. && .MARINE... Breezy winds will produce hazardous marine conditions at times through the week and into the weekend. Moderately tight pressure gradient to keep gusty NE-Eerly winds over some coastal waters around SCEC levels through Thursday with winds around 15-20 knots and seas 3-5 feet. Gradient tightens increasing winds Friday into the weekend ahead of a cold front and a SCA may be needed for the latter part of the week and continuing through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm temps and humid surface conditions continue with occasionaly gusty easterly winds and generally low rain chances for mainly afternoon showers. A cold front is expected to move through the region this weekend with drier conditions early next week, however RH values should remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 75 90 74 / 10 0 10 10 FMY 91 75 89 73 / 20 0 40 20 GIF 90 73 88 73 / 10 0 30 20 SRQ 91 73 89 73 / 10 0 20 10 BKV 91 69 88 70 / 10 0 20 10 SPG 88 75 87 74 / 10 0 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley