Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
419 FXUS62 KTBW 190133 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 833 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy late night and early morning fog each day. - Sunny and dry with temperatures near to a few degrees above normal through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 811 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 Fog development appears to be a possibility once again overnight given the light to calm flow and mostly clear skies, though forecast confidence in the overall coverage of fog development remains low at this time. Thus, will keep the patchy fog messaging in the forecast for the overnight hours for nearly the entire forecast area but not expecting it to be completely area-wide. Other than the fog potential, it will continue to remain quiet for the remainder of this evening with overnight lows dropping into the low/mid 50s for the Nature Coast and upper 50s to low 60s for the remainder of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 Surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon will drift east out into the Atlantic Ocean over the next few days, but continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula into this weekend. Late in the weekend a weakening cold front will settle into north Florida and washout early next week with another area of high pressure building in from the north with a repeat of this week. Therefore, over the next week we will continue to see fair dry weather with the only potential issue being some late night and early morning fog each day. Daytime high temperatures will remain near to a few degrees above normal in the lower to mid 80s, except mid to upper 70s along the coast where an afternoon sea breeze is expected each day. Overnight lows will continue near normal in the 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 Areas of patchy fog may develop across portions of the region tonight, which may result in an extended period of IFR/LIFR conditions but overall forecast confidence in location of fog development remains low at this time. Any fog that develops will dissipate around 14Z on Wednesday with VFR conditions then expected area-wide for the remainder of the day. Light and VRB winds overnight will then be mainly ENE on Wednesday, though a shift to the NNW may occur at coastal sites tomorrow afternoon as a weak sea breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 High pressure will settle across the waters into the weekend, keeping rain free conditions in place. Winds and seas will remain well below headline criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 110 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic States will drift east out into the Atlantic Ocean over the next few days, but continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula. This will continue the fair dry weather with light easterly flow becoming onshore near the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 63 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 62 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 60 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 53 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 65 81 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn