Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
035 FXUS62 KTBW 180012 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 812 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty marine winds tonight and Saturday night. - Rain-free conditions for most of the week, except for a slight chance late Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 No changes made to existing forecast. High pressure remains in control with continued dry conditions locally into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 High pressure remains aloft over the southeastern U.S. this afternoon while surface high pressure to our north ridges southward. These features will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of days as a trough digs through the central U.S. and a surface frontal boundary moves into the southeast. This front will bring a slight chance for a few showers late Sunday, then high pressure builds in over the southeast behind the boundary and quickly shifts eastward, keeping warm and dry conditions in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 721 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Dry VFR through the period with continued E/NE winds gradually veering more E/SE Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Northeast to east winds continue through Saturday, with speeds reaching exercise caution criteria tonight. Winds turn more southeast on Sunday ahead of a frontal boundary, then become north to northeast early next week with no further headlines expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 No fire weather concerns for the next few days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 67 86 70 87 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 66 87 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 64 85 65 89 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 65 86 67 87 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 59 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 70 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby