630
FXUS62 KTBW 171831
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
231 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Drier air in the midlevels will keep rain chances minimal through
the rest of the day and leading into tomorrow. A little extra
moisture down south could generate a few isolated showers between
today through Wednesday. By Thursday, more moisture begins to move
into the area from the Atlantic leading to increased rain chances
into the weekend.

The big question still remains, what is going to happen with the
system being watched in the Atlantic. currently, models are still
uncertain with intensity, track and timing. Some show a weak system
moving further north and impacting the Carolinas, some show just a
wave of moisture with no development moving over coastal GA, SC.
Either way, with the increased easterly flow and added moisture
streaming in, we could see elevated rain chances through the
weekend.

Temperatures remain at or a little above average for this time of
year. Pockets of heat indices in the triple digits could be
possible throughout the week. Warmest temperatures will hover
along the coast where the relief of the afternoon seabreeze will
not be felt due to the overbearing east coast breeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail. The strong east winds should
diminish slightly overnight before surging once again tomorrow
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A strong easterly flow will continue to be an issue throughout the
week. Advisory level winds beginning tonight into tomorrow will
diminish slightly tomorrow afternoon before surging once more
tomorrow night. This cycle continues into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Ample moisture at the surface keeps fire dangers to a minimum.
However high dispersions are expected throughout the week as
winds remain elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  93  77  93 /   0  20  10  30
FMY  75  93  77  92 /   0  30  10  50
GIF  74  92  75  92 /   0  30   0  30
SRQ  75  95  77  95 /   0  20  20  40
BKV  70  94  73  93 /   0  20   0  30
SPG  80  94  81  94 /   0  20  10  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday
     for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...RDavis