089
FXUS62 KTBW 090711
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
311 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend.

 - Limited heat risk with warm and humid conditions through
   Friday.

 - Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected this weekend
   into the first half of next week.


.DISCUSSION...
The warm and humid conditions will remain in place as increasing
easterly winds continue to bring W Atlantic low level moisture
over the FL Peninsula today into Friday with isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms, mainly across the interior and
SWFL during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs
remain above climate normal for heat index values around 100.

The upper shortwave trough will continue to dig into the SE US
today deepen, partially become cut off of the main upper flow and
meander overhead through the weekend and begin to open and slowly
move into the W Atlantic early next week bringing a pattern
chance to the region.

Over the weekend, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop
off the FL East coast along a frontal boundary. This front is
expected to move through the FL Peninsula Saturday with rain
chances ending. The Nor`easter is then expected to move north
along the eastern seaboard Sunday into Tuesday.

High pressure building into the region behind the front will
bring a slightly cooler and drier airmass to the area starting
Saturday night and continuing into next week for pleasant FL fall
like conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conditions expected through the morning with NE winds. SCT-BKN
low level cumulus field should develop late morning to early
afternoon especially S and SW FL areas as E winds become gusty to
around 20kts. Aft 18Z in SW FL terminals expect SCT SHRA or ISOLD
TSRA with brief MVFR/LCL IFR conditions mainly from 19-23Z and
will keep Prob30 in for now.

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient will increase today between strong high
pressure down the Eastern Seaboard and the combination of a stalled
frontal boundary across North Florida and a tropical wave in the
Northern Caribbean Sea to produce increasingly gusty northeast to
east winds over parts of the coastal waters with impactful SCEC
levels today becoming hazardous SCA conditions this evening
through Friday for dangerous marine conditions for small craft
into the weekend as a cold front moves through the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The very warm temperatures and humid surface conditions will
continue with increasingly gusty east to northeast winds through
Friday. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and a few thunderstorms are possible through Friday. A
cold front is expected to move through the region this weekend
with drier conditions into early next week, however RH values
should remain above critical levels. No significant fog is
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  87  71 /  10  10  30  10
FMY  89  74  87  72 /  50  30  50  20
GIF  88  73  85  70 /  20  20  50  20
SRQ  90  73  87  71 /  20  20  30  10
BKV  89  71  84  67 /  20  10  30  20
SPG  87  75  84  72 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday
     for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Flannery