005
FXUS62 KTBW 010025
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
825 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as the weakening cool front moves south into the area.
Behind this boundary northeast winds will setup and with plenty of
low level moisture expect to see some low clouds develop from
around the Tampa Bay area and I-4 corridor northward overnight.
This boundary will stall across south Florida Monday with some
drier air moving into the area, especially north of the I-4
corridor. Thus the highest rain chances will be across the
southern interior and southwest Florida during the afternoon and
evening. Overall the current forecast looks on track with no major
changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 825 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as the weakening cool front moves south into the area.
Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph will setup overnight behind this
boundary and expect to see some MVFR ceilings develop around the
Tampa Bay TAF sites and LAL late tonight into Monday morning.
Otherwise, more scattered to numerous convection will develop
during Monday. MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in the
showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty erratic winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Currently we are seeing most of the shower activity shifting south
of I-4 and thats where most of activity should stay for the rest of
the day. Looking at our Labor day Hi-Res models are showing a weak
low trying to develop in the Atlantic along the front. This will
warp around some slightly drier air to our area throughout the day.
So instead of above normal PW we should see it around average.  This
will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon and evening with coverage a little lower then today.

Moisture looks to increase again for Tuesday and Wednesday with
widespread showers possible through the day as the front continues
to sit across the area. A strong trough will push through Florida by
the later half of the week which will help to push the front south.
There is some difference in timing of this trough. With the Euro
keeping the high moisture and PoPs in place through Thursday and the
GFS going a little faster and lower PoPs for Thursday. Either way
they both agree with lower moisture and only isolated storm chances
for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Monday we will see slightly lower PoPs compared to our Sunday but
we can still expect some scattered showers overnight and early
tomorrow morning. However, a stall front will bring widespread
shower back to the forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. Winds
will generally stay below criteria however borderline Small Craft

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at
a minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  76  90 /  50  60  20  60
FMY  76  91  75  91 /  30  80  40  80
GIF  75  89  74  91 /  50  70  10  60
SRQ  75  91  74  89 /  30  60  40  60
BKV  71  88  71  89 /  50  50  10  50
SPG  76  88  76  88 /  40  60  30  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn