Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
530 FXUS62 KTBW 250626 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 126 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds over the eastern Gulf waters will produce hazardous boating conditions on Thursday and Friday with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed. - Much cooler and drier conditions expected late Thursday through Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 Upper level ridging extends from Florida north-northeastward through the western Atlantic to Nova Scotia. On the surface, high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic and New England coastline ridges southwest over Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This pattern will favor rain-free and warm conditions for the next couple of days. Farther to the west, upper troughing extends southward through the Mississippi River Valley. An area of low pressure is located near Arkansas with a cold front extending southward through Louisiana. This system will traverse east-northeastward over the next 24-48 hours. The trailing edge of the cold front will move across Florida on Wednesday, but will be mostly dry with only a chance of showers for parts of the Nature Coast and eastern Gulf waters. By Thursday morning, broad upper troughing encompasses the east coast as the cold front moves south and east of Florida. Strong surface high pressure builds in behind this front and will help usher in some cooler air for the latter part of the week. Breezy northerly winds will advect in this cooler air with daytime highs only reaching the 60`s and 70`s for most of west central and southwest Florida on Thursday and Friday. The coolest morning will be Friday morning with lows dipping into the mid 30`s along the Nature Coast and mid 40`s to low 50`s for central and southwest Florida. Saturday morning will be on the cool side as well with upper 30`s along the Nature Coast and upper 40`s to mid 50`s for central and southwest Florida. By Saturday afternoon, a zonal upper pattern sets up over Florida. On the surface, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest over Florida and will allow for continued rain-free conditions and a warm up for the weekend and into the first half of next week. Near average to slightly above average temps expected Sunday through Tuesday next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 VFR, rain-free conditions and light winds less than 10 knots expected at all terminals through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 High pressure ridging across Florida and into the Gulf will keep southeast through southwest winds around 10 knots or less through Wednesday. The chances for sea fog remain low early this morning, but increase on Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front that will move through the area on Wednesday. A chance of showers will also be possible on Wednesday in the vicinity of the front. The cold front will push through Wednesday night and strong high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. This will produce gusty northerly winds starting early Thursday morning reaching Small Craft Advisory level by Thursday afternoon and continuing through Saturday morning. Winds will remain around 15 knots on Sunday and into next week as they shift to the east-northeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 High pressure ridging across Florida will keep warm and rain-free conditions over the area through Wednesday morning. A cold front moves through on Wednesday afternoon and will produce a chance of showers along the Nature Coast, but most of the area should stay rain-free. Some dry air with low RH values below 35 percent will move into the area in the wake of this front on Thursday and Friday, but winds are expected to remain below 15 mph, so no Red Flag Warning should be needed. Moisture rebounds by Saturday with no other fire weather concern anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 84 67 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 85 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 85 64 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 83 65 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 85 58 84 55 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 82 68 81 66 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Wynn