821
FXUS62 KTBW 150039
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
839 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Drier mid to upper air is starting to move into the region from
the N Carib, as seen in TBW and MFL soundings and SAL satellite
imagery, that limited this afternoon`s seabreeze thunderstorm
coverage and intensity with warm and humid surface conditions.
The ongoing showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
isolated in nature but linger and move on outflow boundary
interactions through around midnight or shortly there after.
Latest grids and forecast on track.

.AVIATION...
ISOLD slow moving TSRA remain around the area to keep VCTS in most
terminals until 03-06Z before clearing overnight as winds back to
the SE. Some drier air to move over the region but expect another
ISOLD-SCT TSRA again late SUN on the Gulf seabreeze.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper-level ridging remains across the state this afternoon while
the Atlantic ridge axis extends across the central part of the
peninsula. This has led to a southeast to south low-level wind flow,
with showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf since this morning. For
the rest of the day, expect the west coast sea breeze to help
initiate additional storms first over southwest Florida and then
expanding across the rest of the coast and then inland. Similar to
yesterday, the very immediate coast may miss out on the rainfall,
but it will likely be pretty close. The better chance for these
areas will be after dark when the sea breeze circulation collapses
and activity starts to shift back westward.

This overall pattern of southeast wind flow remains in place through
the week, though some drier air moves in starting Monday, which will
likely limit rainfall coverage. Moisture starts to go back up for
the end of the week and then into the weekend, with a return to
higher rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast to south winds will turn onshore with the sea breeze each
afternoon for the next several days with no headlines expected.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, but rain
chances remain highest during the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected
with no fire weather concerns. No significant fog is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  91  78  92 /  30  50  40  50
FMY  75  92  75  93 /  30  50  40  50
GIF  76  94  76  94 /  50  50  30  50
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  40  40  50  50
BKV  72  92  72  93 /  30  50  40  60
SPG  79  89  78  89 /  40  50  50  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming