216
FXUS62 KTBW 271807
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
207 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

With the frontal boundary currently situated right along I4, weather
patterns show division to the north and south. South of the front,
the air column is very moist with PW of 2.13 inches recorded from
this morning`s sounding. This is evident with scattered and isolated
showers and thunderstorms from the Gulf in SW Florida; these storms
will become more inland, encroaching into the west central, but
remain in the same general vicinity, dissipating in the early
evening hours. To the north, the air is drier with only some
isolated showers possible.

Going into tomorrow and Friday, the front will recede overnight,
returning some ridging over the peninsula to bring it to a more
standard seabreeze pattern with a S/SW flow. This will concentrate
storms and showers on the eastern half of the state in the afternoon
and evening hours.

Over the weekend, another frontal system will begin to push in and
combine with the SW flow in place. This will increase PW and bring
up PoPs, particularly across the interior. So while some day-to-
day changes are expected, the overall result is will be more
summer-like weather into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

South of Tampa Bay in the vicinity of a frontal boundary that has
effectively stalled out across the region, thunderstorms will
remain possible through the evening. Elsewhere, quiet VFR
conditions are expected. As the boundary begins to lift north
tomorrow, the probability of impacts from showers and
thunderstorms will again increase. However, it will still remain
fairly low tomorrow before a window for impacts becomes more
likely for Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Some shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to linger over
southern coastal waters to the south of a stalled frontal boundary.
As this boundary lifts back north over the next couple days, rain
chances will again start to increase across coastal waters. The most-
likely time-frame for storms will be overnight through about midday.
Despite a weak front being in the vicinity, winds and seas remain
light outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Today is the driest day, but some drier air may linger into tomorrow
and even Friday particularly across the Nature Coast as a weak front
lifts back north. By the weekend, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast areawide. Despite some of the
drier air across parts of the region today, RH values remain above
critical thresholds and winds remain light. There are no
significant fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  92  79 /  30  10  40  20
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  50  30  60  40
GIF  93  76  94  76 /  30  20  60  30
SRQ  90  75  91  76 /  50  20  40  20
BKV  93  72  92  72 /  20  10  40  20
SPG  89  78  89  78 /  40  20  40  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ulevicius
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery