458
FXUS62 KTBW 282336
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
736 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Weak high pressure remains over the Florida peninsula with light
onshore boundary layer flow. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the eastern interior will gradually push east
of the forecast area over the next couple of hours. Skies are
currently mostly clear over the coastal counties of west central
and southwest Florida...which will persist overnight. Considerable
high cloudiness was located over the interior due to the
convection in that region. Skies will become mostly clear across
inland areas around or shortly after midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The current setup is a surface quasi-stationary boundary and upper
level ridge axis in the very south of Florida; this general
situation will remain throughout the weekend and early next week.
With that in mind, a W/SW seabreeze flow will prompt scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. That is, morning convection will
initiate on the Gulf coast and build up and concentrate inland and
the east coast in the afternoon and evening hours.

The main synoptic change to modify weekend weather conditions is a
surface frontal boundary pushing through the SE U.S. This combination
of a W/SW flow and frontal system will increase PW and bring up PoPs
over the state. With increased rain chances, flooding risk is elevated,
particularly Sunday and Monday.

As for temperatures, highs will remain in the lower to mid 90s today
and Friday, but increased cloud cover and rain chances will drop
temperatures a few degrees during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Predominately VFR conditions will continue tonight and Friday. A
chance of afternoon showers will develop mainly vcnty
LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW Thursday afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR
VSBYs.

&&

.MARINE...
A lingering frontal boundary will remain over or just north of the
coastal zones through the weekend, allowing rain chances to
gradually increase. Despite the proximity of the front, winds and
seas are expected to remain light outside of daily thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns for the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels. Warm and humid
summertime conditions will continue, with increasing showers and
thunderstorms each day through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  91  78 /  30  20  40  20
FMY  94  75  92  76 /  50  40  60  40
GIF  94  75  92  75 /  50  30  60  20
SRQ  92  76  90  76 /  20  20  40  20
BKV  92  72  91  72 /  30  10  50  20
SPG  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana