910
FXUS62 KTBW 170035
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
835 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Today, ridging has remained in place over the state, with
continued southeast boundary layer flow. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms developed earlier this afternoon in our southern
counties and persists ATTM. Further north, the seabreeze
boundaries are colliding over the western parts of west central
Florida, which should produce additional convective activity
through the evening hours...with skies becoming mostly clear after
midnight across the entire forecast area.

This general pattern can be expected to continue through the
remainder of the week. Drier air aloft will advect over the region
Tuesday and Wednesday which will inhibit convection, with
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the
west/east coast sea breeze boundary collision over west
central/southwest Florida late in the day. Deep layer moisture
will increase late in the week which will allow for greater areal
coverage of afternoon showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Upper-level ridging remains situated across Central Florida and
stretches east into the Atlantic. Weak surface high pressure remains
over Florida in response, with a predominantly SSE flow at the
surface. This is a continuation of the conditions that have been in
place for the last few days.

What is changing, however, is the overall moisture content. Drier
air is advecting into the area, leading to considerable mid-level
drying. Low-level moisture will remain, and there will still be
times when moisture pools in the vicinity of boundaries that
develop. As such, rain chances will be considerably lower, but not
zero. It also supports lower-topped convection when storms do form.
Without a doubt, there will still be thunderstorms, but the
expectation is for fewer overall.

The driest air is likely over the next couple days before the
moisture content gradually increases later in the week. Thus, rain
chances are creeping up later in the week. Overall, though, this
pattern is quite locked in with little change.

As such, expect pretty typical summertime to conditions to continue.
With lower rain chances, there will be limited relief in the
evenings favoring lingering heat later into the evening. Overall,
though, the setup is pretty standard for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 817 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Predominately VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. However, thunderstorms with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs may impact
PGD/FMY/RSW/SRQ/LAL over the next couple of hours...with skies
becoming mostly clear around midnight at all terminals.

Tomorrow, conditions are expected to remain similar to those of
recent days, with scattered showers and storms still expected,
although areal coverage will less due to dry air aloft moving over
the region.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Coastal showers and thunderstorms will continue, but likely on a
more limited basis over the next couple days as drier air moves
across the region. An ESE wind generally less than 15 knots will
be dominant, turning onshore along the coast in the afternoon.
However, expect higher winds and seas near and around storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Drier air is filtering in to lower overall thunderstorm coverage for
the first half of the week. However, low-level moisture will remain
sufficient to keep RH values well above critical thresholds. As
such, there are no significant fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  94 /  40  40  40  50
FMY  75  94  75  95 /  50  40  30  60
GIF  76  95  77  95 /  50  40  20  50
SRQ  76  92  77  92 /  40  40  40  50
BKV  72  95  72  95 /  30  30  30  50
SPG  79  90  79  91 /  30  40  40  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby/Poggiali
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis