422
FXUS62 KTBW 151111
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
711 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue this morning and are expected outside of
convection later today and tonight. Best storm chances for this
afternoon are for southwest Florida sites and KLAL and have
included TEMPO groups for these terminals. Elsewhere, a brief
shower could pop up near Tampa Bay early in the afternoon, then
most activity shifts east of those sites. For the overnight period,
it looks like some showers and storms will again form back toward
the coast, so have included VCTS toward the end of the current
forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

We are still seeing some showers and isolated thunderstorms along
the coast in Sarasota and Manatee Counties drifting north. These
storms are weakening and should be done in the next couple of hours.

However, the strong ridging to our north that has caused the
widespread showers along the west coast of Florida each evening and
overnight hours will continue for the next 7 days. This is because
the ridge is giving us a southeasterly flow causing storms to form
each day inland before drifting to the west coast of Florida into
the evening and overnight hours. The only subtle change is PWs go
down closer to 1.5 Tuesday through Thursday which could bring shower
chances down slightly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

South to southeast flow around 5 to 10 knots will
continue through Thursday. This southeasterly flow will keep
afternoon thunderstorm activity overland before drifting towards the
West Coast and out into the Gulf each evening and overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Tropical moisture will continue to be overhead with no major
fire weather danger expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  78  92  79 /  70  50  60  50
FMY  91  75  93  75 /  80  50  60  40
GIF  92  76  94  76 /  70  40  60  30
SRQ  89  76  91  76 /  60  50  60  60
BKV  90  73  92  72 /  70  40  60  40
SPG  89  79  89  79 /  70  50  60  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Aviation...Carlisle
Previous...Shiveley