692
FXUS62 KTBW 090731
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
231 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous marine conditions this morning will improve through
  the afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures today and Wednesday will warm back up
  later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing widespread stratus
clouds covering much of the Florida Peninsula in the wake of the
recent cold front, with clearing conditions gradually working
north to south into the Nature Coast. While the clearing skies are
forecast to continue expanding south into the forecast area
today, deeper moisture south of Interstate 4 should keep at least
the southern half of the forecast area rather cloudy throughout
the day today. Otherwise, the breezy north and northeast winds
are advecting in a cooler airmass, with temperatures dropping into
the 40s and 50s across the area this morning, then highs forecast
to run around 5 degrees below normal this afternoon. While wind
speeds and the associated cold air advection will relax by this
afternoon, the clearing skies over the northern half of the area
will allow for some modest radiational cooling over the Nature
Coast tonight, letting Wednesday morning lows drop into the upper
30s to mid 40s, while lows farther south will be similar or
slightly warmer than what is felt this morning.

By Thursday, an upper level trough digging into the eastern US will
bring a weak and dry cold front into the area, briefly dropping
temperatures back down to slightly below normal Friday morning.
Temperatures will then moderate again Friday through the weekend as
surface high pressure builds into Florida from the north. The only
rain chances of note through the next week could develop Saturday
night and Sunday as an upper level disturbance crosses the
Florida Peninsula, bringing some elevated moisture and slight
chances of rain into southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Widespread MVFR and patchy IFR ceilings behind the recent cold front
will hold through at least sunrise this morning across the area. By
around 12z, ceilings are forecast to lift out of the Tampa Bay area
terminals (KTPA, KPIE, KSRQ, and KLAL), allowing VFR conditions to
return through the rest of the day, but patchy MVFR ceilings are
expected to linger through the rest of the day across southwest
Florida (KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Breezy north and northeast winds today are causing borderline Small
Craft Advisory level conditions early this morning, but winds and
seas are forecast to improve throughout the day. High pressure
building in from the north will then remain in control through
Wednesday. On Thursday, a weak and dry cold front will sweep
southeast across the waters, increasing winds slightly, but winds
and seas are not forecast to reach headline criteria. High pressure
will then spread across the waters through the rest of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

No humidity concerns this week as high pressure builds in behind the
recent cold front. Somewhat breezy north and northeast winds today
will relax this evening under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  55  71  58 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  73  59  76  55 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  69  54  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  55  71  57 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  68  45  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  57  71  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Fleming