Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
025 FXUS62 KTBW 251843 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 143 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous boating conditions on Thursday and Friday with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed. - Much cooler and drier conditions expected late Thursday through Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 |Tomorrow will be our last day of warm weather as a cold front will push through during the early morning hours on Thanksgiving. Even though we will wake up in the 60`s Thanksgiving morning temperatures will struggle as cold air filters in during the afternoon. This will result in highs mainly in the low to mid 70`s. Friday looks to be our coldest day with lows from the upper 30`s along the Nature Coast to low 50`s in Southwest Florida. Oh top of the we will see some breezy conditions in the morning bringing feel like temperatures in the 30`s and 40`s for all of us. Highs on Friday will stay around 70 degrees. This cold air will not last for long as temperatures start to rise for the weekend with highs back in the low to mid 80`s on Sunday. This quick warm up will be due to another cold front heading towards the area on Monday. Right now models are showing this cold front will stall in north Florida for at least Monday and Tuesday keeping some warmer air in place to start our next work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with winds generally staying below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 Winds will remain out of the south and southeast around 5 to 10 knots through Tuesday. A cold front will push through in the early morning hours on Thanksgiving. This will result in winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots out of the north and northeast through Saturday. This will bring some hazardous boating conditions with Small Craft Advisories possible from Thanksgiving through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 We will stay warm and moist through Wednesday with the biggest concern being patchy fog overnight. A strong cold front will push through early Thanksgiving morning resulting in drier air filtering in. We will see some critical RHs along the Nature Coast on Thanksgiving. Drier will continue to filter in on Friday bringing critical RH to the whole area Friday afternoon. Winds will remain light through that period so red flag is not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 84 68 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 86 66 85 67 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 85 64 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 83 66 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 85 58 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 82 69 80 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Davis UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis