Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
406 FXUS62 KTBW 161123 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 723 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 702 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Gusty marine winds possible late week and into the weekend. - Rain-free conditions through Saturday, then a slight chance of showers on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Northeast winds become north to north-northwest this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Broad upper ridging extends northward through the Mississippi River Valley. The surface reflection is a 1025 mb high pressure center located over the Great Lakes region. The upper ridge and surface high will slowly move east-southeastward over the next couple of days and will be located along the eastern seaboard by Saturday morning. This pattern will keep a predominant northeast wind flow, partly cloudy skies and low rain chances over the Florida peninsula through Saturday. By Sunday morning, the high has shifted farther southeastward off the Carolina coastline between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Farther to the north, an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending southward through the Ohio River Valley. The trailing edge of this weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest on Sunday. This will bring a shift in the winds to the southeast and southwest and also bring a slight uptick in moisture over the region. A stray shower may be possible as the front moves through on Sunday into early Monday. The front pushes south and east of Florida and dissipates on Monday as high pressure builds back in over the southeast U.S. Pleasant weather is expected for the first half of next week. Near seasonal temperatures expected through the period with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure north of the area will produce rain-free conditions and prevailing northeast winds around 10-15 knots through the day, with some brief periods of increasing winds to Cautionary level overnight tonight and again on Friday night. The only chance of any showers will come on Sunday as a weak front moves across the eastern gulf waters. High pressure then builds back into the area for the first half of next week with pleasant weather expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Pleasant weather expected for most of the period with only a slight chance of a shower on Sunday. No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 69 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 69 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 67 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 68 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 87 61 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 84 70 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$