024
FXUS62 KTBW 241221
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
721 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog, which will be locally dense, through the early
  morning hours mainly along the coastal counties from Charlotte
  county and northward.

- Patchy dense late night and early morning fog tonight through
  Wednesday night.

- Much cooler and drier conditions late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025
An area of low clouds and fog, which is locally dense, extends
over the coastal counties and adjacent coastal waters from
Sarasota north. The fog/low clouds may sink further south down
the coast to around Charlotte county by sunrise. A dense fog
advisory is in effect for the coastal waters north of Englewood
including Tampa Bay through 7 AM. A land based dense fog advisory
may be needed in the next several hours should the pockets of dense
fog become more widespread. The fog will lift a few hours after
sunrise Monday morning. But it may impact rush hour traffic early
this morning.

Otherwise, high pressure will hold over the region today. Once the
fog lifts, skies will become partly sunny as some high cirrus
will begin to spread over the region by this afternoon. Warm dry
conditions will persist. Areas of fog will develop again tonight
and may be locally dense, with the best chance for dense fog
across the nature coast. The fog will lift by mid morning with
partly cloudy skies and continued warm temperatures on Tuesday.
Similar pattern for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Big changes coming for most of the forecast area mid/late week as
a strong cold front will move across the region Wednesday night
and Thursday. Deep layer moisture will be limited, and dry
conditions will prevail...but can`t rule out a stray light shower.
Much cooler drier air will advect across the forecast area in the
wake of the front as Canadian high pressure builds over the
region. Temperatures will drop several degrees below climatic
normals late in the week...and model guidance may be a
few/several degrees to warm with overnight low temperatures
Thursday night and Friday night, especially across the nature
coast.

The area of high pressure will move to the mid Atlantic coast over
the weekend which will cause boundary layer winds across the
Florida peninsula to veer to the east. Winds off the Atlantic will
cause the airmass over the forecast area to modify with dew
points/temperatures rebounding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

LIFR and IFR CIGS and VIS will start to lift in the next couple of
hours. After that we can expect VFR conditions through the period
with winds generally below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025
Areas of dense fog through early this morning north of Englewood.
Otherwise, high pressure will hold over the waters through mid
week. Patchy fog will again be possible tonight and Tuesday night,
mainly near the coast. Winds and seas will remain light. A strong
cold front will push across the waters Wednesday night and
Thursday. Winds will increase to cautionary levels in the wake of
the front for late in the week...with SCA possible on portions of
the waters. Winds will remain a bit elevated through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels. Light winds will lead to poor dispersion across portions
of west central and southwest Florida today. A strong cold front
will push across the region mid week, which may lead to increased
fire danger late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  67  85  67 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  85  66  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  85  63  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  84  65  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  85  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  82  67  82  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-
     Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland
     Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis