647
FXUS62 KTBW 161842
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Upper-level ridging remains situated across Central Florida and
stretches east into the Atlantic. Weak surface high pressure remains
over Florida in response, with a predominantly SSE flow at the
surface. This is a continuation of the conditions that have been in
place for the last few days.

What is changing, however, is the overall moisture content. Drier
air is advecting into the area, leading to considerable mid-level
drying. Low-level moisture will remain, and there will still be
times when moisture pools in the vicinity of boundaries that
develop. As such, rain chances will be considerably lower, but not
zero. It also supports lower-topped convection when storms do form.
Without a doubt, there will still be thunderstorms, but the
expectation is for fewer overall.

The driest air is likely over the next couple days before the
moisture content gradually increases later in the week. Thus, rain
chances are creeping up later in the week. Overall, though, this
pattern is quite locked in with little change.

As such, expect pretty typical summertime to conditions to continue.
With lower rain chances, there will be limited relief in the
evenings favoring lingering heat later into the evening. Overall,
though, the setup is pretty standard for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Thunderstorms remain the primary hazard, but the overall window for
impacts will generally be shorter and overall coverage more limited
over the next couple days with some drier air moving into the
region. However, the setup is favorable for some late night storms
tonight, lingering along the coast through mid-morning. This is more
the exception rather than the rule for the next few days. As
moisture increases again later in the week, the potential for
impacts will again increase.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Coastal showers and thunderstorms will continue, but likely on a
more limited basis over the next couple days as drier air moves
across the region. An ESE wind generally less than 15 knots will
be dominant, turning onshore along the coast in the afternoon.
However, expect higher winds and seas near and around storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Drier air is filtering in to lower overall thunderstorm coverage for
the first half of the week. However, low-level moisture will remain
sufficient to keep RH values well above critical thresholds. As
such, there are no significant fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  94 /  40  40  40  50
FMY  75  94  75  95 /  50  40  30  60
GIF  76  95  77  95 /  50  40  20  50
SRQ  76  92  77  92 /  40  40  40  50
BKV  72  95  72  95 /  30  30  30  50
SPG  79  90  79  91 /  30  40  40  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery