Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
115 FXUS62 KTBW 221423 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 923 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy late night and early morning fog into next week. && .UPDATE... Benign weekend weather on tap with weak high pressure stacked over the region for warm humid days and coolish damp patchy fog nights. Latest grids and forecasts on track. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions all TAF sites today with thin cirrus aloft with light winds turning onshore in the afternoon. Expect another night of patchy fog in prone areas thru Sunday 13Z. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1204 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today with continued mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. A weak U/L trough and associated weak cold front will move over the Florida peninsula on Sunday...with the frontal boundary stalling across south central Florida Sunday night. Only change to sensible weather will be a slight increase in cloudiness and winds shifting to the north and northwest behind the front. The front will lift back north of the area as a warm front early next week, with high pressure surface and aloft building back over the region. The surface high will begin to exit the area over the western Atlantic on Tuesday with winds veering to the south and southeast. A much stronger cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture will be limited and U/L support will be lifting away from the area with only a slight chance of a shower. Much cooler drier air will advect across the forecast area in the wake of the front. && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters today. A weak cold front will sink south across the waters on Sunday with winds becoming north to northwest. High pressure will build back over the waters on Monday. A stronger cold front will move across the waters mid week. Winds/seas will remain relatively light through Wednesday, but will increase in the wake of the cold front mid week with cautionary levels likely...and may approach advisory levels on portions of the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1204 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. Light winds will lead to poor dispersion across portions of west central and southwest Florida today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 66 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 85 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 81 64 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 83 59 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 80 68 80 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce