Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
275 FXUS62 KTBW 261225 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 725 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northerly winds over the eastern Gulf waters will produce hazardous boating conditions on Thursday and Friday with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed. - Much cooler and drier conditions expected late Thursday through Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 Upper level ridging over the Bahamas flattens and shifts southeastward as deep troughing extending southward through the Mississippi River Valley traverses eastward. On the surface, broad high pressure shifts northeast of Bermuda and will continue to dominate the weather with warm and rain-free conditions for one more day. Farther to the north and west, an area of low pressure is located over the Great Lakes region. The associated occluded front extends to a triple point low over the eastern Great Lakes. The associated warm front extends eastward over New England, while the cold front extends southward through the southeast U.S. The trailing edge of this front will traverse eastward over the next couple of days bringing a low chance of showers over the Nature Coast and eastern gulf waters later this evening into early Thursday morning. By Thursday morning, broad upper troughing encompasses the east coast as the cold front moves south and east of Florida. A 1037 MB surface high pressure center moves southeast from central Canada, builds in behind this front and will help usher in some cooler air for the latter part of the week. Breezy northerly winds will advect in this cooler air with daytime highs only reaching the 60`s and 70`s for most of west central and southwest Florida on Friday and Saturday. The cool air will settle in on Friday and Saturday mornings with lows dipping into the mid 30`s along the Nature Coast and mid 40`s to low 50`s for central and southwest Florida. Breezy northerly winds will produce wind chill values in the low to mid 30`s from Tampa Bay area northward along the Nature Coast on Friday and Saturday mornings. By Saturday afternoon, a more zonal upper pattern sets up over Florida as surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest over Florida. This will allow for continued rain-free conditions and a gradual warm up for the latter part of the weekend and into the first half of next week. Near average to slightly above average temps expected Sunday through Tuesday. On Sunday evening, models are developing another cold front over the eastern U.S. and moving it eastward over Florida on Tuesday bringing the next chance of rain, but still on the low side around 20-30 percent. Only a small cool down is expected behind this front with highs staying in the 70`s and 80`s for the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 VFR conditions through the period with winds generally below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 High pressure ridging across Florida and into the Gulf will keep southeast through southwest winds around 10 knots or less for today. A chance of showers will be possible later today into early Thursday morning in the vicinity of cold front moving across the region. The cold front will push through by Thursday morning and strong high pressure builds into the area from the northwest in the wake of this front. This will produce gusty northerly winds starting early Thursday morning reaching Small Craft Advisory level by Thursday afternoon and continuing through Saturday morning. Winds will remain around 15 knots on Sunday and into next week as they shift to the east-northeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 High pressure ridging across Florida will keep warm and rain-free conditions over the area through the first half of today. A cold front moves through later today into early Thursday and will produce a chance of showers along the Nature Coast, but most of the area should stay rain-free. Some dry air with low RH values below 35 percent will move into the area in the wake of this front on Thursday and Friday, but winds are expected to remain below 15 mph, so no Red Flag Warning should be needed. Moisture rebounds by Saturday with no other fire weather concern anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 84 66 76 47 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 85 67 81 51 / 0 10 10 0 GIF 86 64 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 82 66 76 49 / 0 10 0 0 BKV 84 57 73 36 / 0 10 0 0 SPG 81 67 74 51 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close