Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
448 FXUS62 KTBW 211840 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 140 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy late night and early morning fog each day. - Sunny and dry with temperatures running several degrees above normal through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 High pressure will hold over the region through tomorrow before a weak and mainly dry frontal boundary moves over the state on Sunday. This boundary will really only shift winds to the northwest/north briefly before high pressure builds over the southeast and turns winds back east/southeast for early next week. Really no changes to the ongoing forecast with warm and dry conditions persisting through most of next week. The next rain chances show up at the very end of the forecast period (next Friday) as the next system approaches. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected outside of patchy fog expected tonight. Best chances look to be for KLAL and KPGD, but have mentioned fog at other sites too and TEMPO groups may have to be added in later forecasts if confidence increases. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 High pressure will remain over the waters through most of the weekend before a weak and mostly dry frontal boundary moves over the state. Light southeast winds will turn onshore with the sea breeze each day until the front comes on Sunday and winds turn more northwest to north and then back east again for early next week. Overall, no headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Though dry conditions remain over the region, Red Flag conditions are not anticipated as RH values will be above critical levels. Patchy fog is expected tonight across much of the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 64 83 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 63 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 85 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 81 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 54 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 66 79 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$