Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
814 FXUS62 KTBW 222335 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 635 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense late night and early morning fog into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 635 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 Mostly clear skies with diminishing winds across the area this evening. Areas of fog are expected to develop later tonight into early Sunday morning, especially from around the Interstate 4 corridor northward as slightly more moisture moves in from the north ahead of a weakening cold front. Fair and dry conditions are expected for the remainder of Sunday with high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 70s along the coast thanks to the onshore northwest to west flow, to the mid 80s inland. Current forecast looks good with no changes needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 Some fog is expected later tonight and early Sunday between about 09Z and 14Z. The lowest visibilities and ceilings are expected away from most of the TAF sites, except LAL, but there could be some patches of IFR/local LIFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF forecast period. Winds will be light overnight then increase out of the northwest at 5 to 10 knots by late Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Stacked ridging over the region is getting nudged Sward as a weak shortwave aloft pushes a weak and dry surface frontal boundary through the Deep South Sunday stalling across the FL Peninsula Sunday night into Monday. As ridging builds over the area the front will quickly lift back north of the area as a warm front, with warm and humid conditions continuing. Main weather impacts will be patchy dense late night and early morning fog daily. Upper trough to move move through the U.S, bringing a strong but dry cold front across west central and southwest Florida ahead of Thanksgiving Day. A fast moving high pressure center dropping out of Canada will bring a much cooler and drier airmass across the region to end the holiday week into next weekend. && .MARINE... Light winds and slight seas expected to continue as a weak and dry cold front moves across the region Sunday with winds shifting northerly. Weak high pressure to rebuild back over the waters early next week with easterly winds. A stronger but mainly dry cold front will move across the region mid week with winds and seas increasing mid to late week with hazardous conditions developing. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend and into next week with generally light winds and patchy late night and early morning dense fog possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 67 82 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 62 83 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 62 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 64 81 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 60 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 68 80 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery