359
FXUS62 KTBW 161041
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
641 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
A south to southeast flow continues across the region today with
mainly VFR conditions this morning, followed by increasing showers
and thunderstorms. Most activity is offshore this morning, but a
few showers could affect coastal sites before storms increase in
coverage for the afternoon. All sites have TEMPO groups for later
this afternoon for storms causing gusty winds and/or MVFR/IFR cigs
and vsbys. Convection diminishes after 02Z or so, with a quiet
overnight period expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Invest 93L is in the process of moving to the west away from the
state after trekking across near our northernmost counties, who
received plentiful amounts of precipitation. In contrast, most of
the area further south saw subdued rainfall, as a drier slot
covering much of West Central and Southwest Florida worked to stifle
and delay convection until the late afternoon, where scattered
storms were relatively short-lived due to the impending sunset. New
showers and thunderstorms formed along the coast and will continue
to be pushed to the north by onsetting SSE flow, but most are
offshore and over the marine zones at the moment, rather than
interacting with land. Inland areas should be quiet for the rest of
the morning.

With the new flow pattern setting in behind the low pressure system,
Sea Breeze Flow Regime 7 us expected through the end of the week,
which will bring a more historically familiar Florida summertime
pattern of showers and thunderstorms mainly occurring in the
afternoon. Today, with more SSE flow than SE, the onset of activity
should begin first in our southern counties, potentially in the
early afternoon, before moving up through our area a few hours
later. Convective activity is expected to die down shortly after
sunset. Precipitation chances are quite high today with values
around 70%-80%, so the Weather Prediction Center has tagged our area
with a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall, and
therefore a possibility of localized flash flooding exists.
Climatologically, the distribution of precipitation under this type
of flow is typically concentrated along the west coast of the state.
This pattern should stay intact through the end of the week, but a
slight difference could be a shift to more SE flow, which would lead
to more inland coverage.

With this pattern of primarily afternoon showers and thunderstorms
back in place, highs are expected to rise in the mid 90s for the end
of this week and into the weekend due to relatively less cloud cover
and rainfall during the peak hours of sunlight. Lows could climb up
a few degrees as well towards the mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

South to southeast winds expected through the remainder of the
week as a tropical disturbance slowly moves along the northern
Gulf coast and away from the local waters. Winds will remain
elevated over the next day or two, potentially approaching
cautionary levels, before gradually decreasing into the weekend.
Daily showers and storms remain likely, with locally higher winds
and seas in/near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Aside from elevated dispersions today mainly across parts of the
Nature Coast, typical summertime minimal fire concerns expected with
ample moisture remaining in place across the area along with daily
shower and storm chances through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  79  92  79 /  80  30  80  30
FMY  91  76  93  76 /  70  30  80  20
GIF  92  76  93  76 /  70  20  80  10
SRQ  91  76  92  76 /  70  30  80  30
BKV  91  72  93  73 /  80  30  80  20
SPG  88  78  90  79 /  80  30  80  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$