736
FXUS62 KTBW 300023
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
823 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Early evening water vapor and IR satellite imagery is showing a
band of moisture and clouds stretched across northern Florida and
the northern Gulf while a pocket of drier air is pushing into the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula. While this drier air kept
storm coverage lower along the coast, scattered to numerous storms
were still able to develop over the interior and over the
northern portion of the Nature Coast this afternoon where
available moisture was higher. These storms have now largely
pushed east of the forecast area, with mainly rain free conditions
now expected through the rest of the night.

The forecast looks on track with rain chances increasing this
weekend as a shortwave rotates into the area. No significant
changes planned for the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 822 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Generally VFR conditions will hold through the overnight and
morning  hours, although a few lingering showers or storms cannot
be completely ruled out during the next couple of hours as the
afternoon convection winds down and pushes east. Storms will
develop again Saturday afternoon by around 18-19z and will
continue through the early evening hours, generally moving east
through the area and causing periods of reduced flight categories
and gusty winds as storms pass over individual terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Quiet boating conditions today will give way to an unsettled
pattern across Gulf Waters over the weekend and into early next
week as a frontal boundary sinks south. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be possible at nearly any time
beginning late Saturday and into Sunday, with locally hazardous
winds and seas in the vicinity. Outside of thunderstorms, winds
will flip flop in the coming days, but should generally remain
below 15 knots with seas around 2 feet or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  90  78  89 /  10  40  20  70
FMY  76  92  76  90 /  20  60  20  70
GIF  76  92  75  90 /  20  60  20  80
SRQ  76  90  76  89 /  10  40  20  70
BKV  72  89  72  88 /  10  60  20  70
SPG  78  88  77  86 /  10  40  20  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming
MARINE...Flannery