419
FXUS62 KTBW 021736
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
136 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A stalled front over South Florida looks to go no where for most of
our 7 day period. For today and tomorrow a low pressure has formed
off the East Coast which can be seen very well on satellite. Being
on the back side of this low has brought some slightly lower moisture
and sinking air. This will result in lower storm chances with the
best chance to see some rain in southwest Florida.

By Thursday and Friday the low will have pushed away but the stalled
out boundary will remain. Without the sinking air in place we will
see shower chances going back up again. However most of the shower
chances will be south of I-4. North of I-4 will not see as much of
an influence from the boundary resulting in lower shower chances.
Not much will be changing for the weekend with the highest shower
chances remaining over South Florida.

By next Monday the stall boundary will finally dissipate however
another weak front will be stalling across North Florida. This will
bring increase moisture for all of us in the CWA with higher PoPs
around 70 to 80 percent for most of us.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Slightly drier air wrapping around a low pressure off the east
coast should keep storms away from our northern coastal sites.
Still can`t rule out a stray shower or two but chances to low to
include in TAF. For our other sites storms look to develop in the
evening hours from 22z-00z. Winds will remain northerly throughout
the day with VFR outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A low pressure system in the Atlantic attached to a stall
front in South Florida will bring us northerly winds through
Wednesday with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. Shower chances will be
lower then normal due to sinking air on the back side of low
pressure system. The low will push away by Thursday but front will
remain. This will shift our winds southeasterly for Thursday and
Friday with speeds remain around 5 to 10 knots. Best chance of
storms will be along the coast in the evening and early overnight
nights.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at
a minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  90  78 /  30  10  30  20
FMY  91  76  91  76 /  40  30  50  40
GIF  91  74  91  76 /  40  20  40  10
SRQ  91  75  90  75 /  30  20  30  40
BKV  90  71  91  71 /  30  10  30  20
SPG  88  77  89  77 /  30  20  30  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby