488
FXUS62 KTBW 230015
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The west to southwest flow with abundant moisture, precipitable
over 2 inches, will continue across the area through the weekend.
Therefore, the scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will continue and with so much moisture in place they could occur
at almost anytime. There will also be the potential for some
locally heavy rainfall in spots, especially from areas around
Tampa Bay north where repeat convection moving off the gulf is
most likely. Overall the forecast looks on track with no changes
needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 815 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Abundant moisture with an unstable airmass will lead to scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The favored time for this
convection at the TAF sites is late tonight into early Saturday
afternoon, but could see a shower or thunderstorm at almost
anytime. MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in the
convection, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. Light
southwest tonight will become southwest to west at around 10 knots
by Saturday afternoon, except gusty and erratic near showers and
thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

W/SW flow in place across the area will continue through the
weekend as a boundary lingers across north Florida and the SE US
and the ridge axis remains across the FL Straits. This will keep
morning and early afternoon timing for convection. A slight risk
for excessive rainfall will be in place for tomorrow for the
northern Nature Coast, as the area has received plenty of rainfall
today and grounds are saturated.

The boundary then shifts to across the southern half of Florida
for the first half of next week, keeping deep moisture across
the area and the earlier storm timing. Winds transition back to
the E/SE for the rest of the week, shifting the main convection
timing to the afternoon and evening with the seabreeze.
Temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for
highs, with mid 70s to lower 80s for lows.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

W/SW flow will continue across the waters, keeping the best
chances for convection over the waters mainly in the overnight
and morning hours. Winds transition back to the E/SE mid-week,
shifting storm timing more to the evening and overnight hours as
storms push offshore. Winds remain below any headlines through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each day
through the middle of next week beginning along the coast and
shifting inland through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  80  89  81 /  70  50  80  60
FMY  93  79  91  79 /  50  20  60  30
GIF  93  76  91  77 /  80  20  80  30
SRQ  91  79  90  79 /  50  50  80  60
BKV  90  75  90  74 /  80  50  80  60
SPG  88  80  89  79 /  70  50  80  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT..Hurt
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby