Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
455 FXUS62 KTBW 031124 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 624 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 - Breezy winds over the coastal waters today and Tuesday will create hazardous boating conditions. - Temperatures will be slightly cooler today and tonight, then will gradually warm up through the rest of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will be north to northeast with some periodic gusts to 18-20 knots or so. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 Currently at the surface, a weak low off the Mid-Atlantic coast is pulling a cold front into southern Florida, while high pressure north of the state is building into the southeastern US. This will favor somewhat breezy north-northwest winds today, with modest cold air advection dropping temperatures and dew points across the area. The biggest temperature difference will be felt from around Interstate 4 north, where highs will only top out in the low to mid 70s today. Winds will relax after sunset tonight, but weak cold air advection will continue overnight, allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s over the Nature Coast and into interior west central Florida, and in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast and over southwest Florida. During the rest of the week, the area of surface ridging will settle in north of the state, favoring generally northeast and east flow. Limited moisture will keep rain chances near zero through around Thursday, then moisture will start to ramp back up ahead of the next weak frontal system, allowing for the possibility of a few showers late in the week or during the weekend. Temperatures and humidity will increase Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures then generally running a few degrees normal through the rest of the week and into the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 High pressure building in from the north behind the recent cold front is creating a tight pressure gradient, with north and northeast winds increasing to Small Craft Exercise Caution levels, and approaching Small Craft Advisory levels at times today. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through at least Tuesday morning, then winds and seas will subside as high pressure settles in north of the waters, setting up mainly easterly flow through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 Drier air is filling into the area today behind a cold front, with relative humidity percentages forecast to drop into the upper 30s this afternoon. However, widespread Red Flag conditions are not expected. Patchy high dispersion indices will be possible this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 79 55 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 79 57 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 76 46 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 76 61 79 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$