Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
031 FXUS62 KTBW 122353 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 753 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 750 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Periods of gusty marine winds possible each evening from near sunset to around midnight that will cause seas to increase by a foot or so. - Little to no precipitation expected in the new week as high pressure builds into the region. - The next storm system arrives in about a week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Dry conditions and mostly clear skies continue over the area this evening courtesy of northerly flow between high pressure over the north-central Gulf and low pressure centered over the coastal Carolinas. Cooler drier air mass continues to advect into the peninsula with latest PW values down to around an inch across most of the area, leading to a cool overnight period with lows in the upper 50s north to the lower 60s central through southern interior, and mid to upper 60s along immediate coastal and SWFL locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A cut off low across the Southeast US will slowly lift to the northeast tonight into Monday and gradually open to a trough as it does so. The associated surface reflection with this feature is an occluded coastal low that is currently off the coast of the Carolinas but will drift to the north-northeast further out in the Atlantic over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, in the wake of this departing coastal low and a building mid level ridge across the southern Plains, a deep northerly flow will be in place into the new week and this will maintain a dry air mass across west central and southwest Florida. With PWATs generally expected to be approximately an inch or so through at least the middle of the week, or ranging from the 10th to 25th percentile of sounding climatology per SPC, it will be an extended period of rain-free conditions. In addition, with the departure of the upper low/trough, increasing heights aloft associated with the aforementioned ridging to the west will also favor a slight increase in temperatures in the coming days with highs returning to near-normal values on Monday and near to slightly above normal by mid to late week. By late week and into next weekend, surface high pressure shifts out into the Atlantic with return flow bringing a moistening trend ahead of a frontal system that approaches by late next weekend. Thus, PoPs are forecast to be on an increasing trend by the end of the forecast period, though at this point it doesn`t appear that precipitation amounts look to be enough to put a meaningful improvement in the dry conditions as of late. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Dry VFR through the period with light northerly winds across terminals overnight, increasing to 5-10 knots late morning into afternoon, N/NW for northern coastal terminals and N/NE for interior and southern terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Seas will lessen to 2 ft or less by tonight and generally range from 1-2 ft throughout much of the new week ahead with winds mainly out of the northeast. In addition, high pressure to the north of the area will also provide rain-free conditions throughout the week. Winds and seas may increase by late week and into next weekend as high pressure shifts east into the Atlantic and a cold front approaches the area so chances for exercise cautionary could increase by then. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Drier air has moved into the region as high pressure builds in from the north. This will allow minimum RH values decrease to around 40 percent at times early this week but wind speeds are expected to remain below critical levels so red flag conditions are not anticipated at this time. However, little to no rainfall is expected this week as high pressure remains in control so a prolonged rain-free stretch could increase fire danger somewhat as the dry weather pattern persists. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 67 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 67 87 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 64 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 65 86 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 59 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 69 84 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce