095
FXUS62 KTBW 020015
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Weak surface low pressure continues to drift south along the
Florida east coast with a north to northeast flow across the
region. This brought some slightly drier air into the area
limiting the shower and thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and
evening. Overnight this flow will persist and similar to this
morning we could see some areas of low clouds move into the area
from around the Tampa Bay area and I-4 corridor northward. For
Tuesday it does look we`ll see an increase in moisture from around
the I-4 corridor southward, so expect scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening
in these areas, with isolated to scattered convection across the
Nature Coast. Current forecast looks good with no major changes
needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 815 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Some areas of MVFR/possibly IFR ceilings could develop late
tonight into Tuesday morning around the Tampa Bay TAF sites and
LAL. Then after 18Z Tuesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move south southwest across the region and these
could cause some brief MVFR/local IFR conditions. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
forecast period. North to northeast winds at around 10 knots early
this evening will diminish to 5 to 10 knots overnight into Tuesday,
then shift to more northwesterly near the coast during Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Scattered light to moderate showers continue to move ashore into
the northern Florida Atlantic coast on the north side of a weak
surface low centered around the Space Coast. Meanwhile, scattered
showers continue to move onshore along the Gulf coast in far south
Florida and into the FL Keys as the broad counter-clockwise
circulation around the surface low yields a more onshore flow
further those areas. This surface low will gradually shift
southward along the Atlantic coast through the remainder of the
day with a large fetch of northeasterly flow in place between this
feature and high pressure in New England, bringing enhanced
moisture into much of the peninsula. As bands of showers and
occasional storms rotate in the counter-clockwise fashion around
the surface low as it drops southward to SEFL by this evening,
increasing moisture combined with diurnal heating will bring
increasing rain chances in a general NE-to-SW fashion through this
evening across west central and southwest Florida. However, the
more onshore nature of the flow around SWFL may favor higher rain
chances a bit more inland but outflow boundaries and the proximity
of a frontal boundary may also serve as a focus for some
development. Regardless, mid level lapse rates are rather poor so
would mainly expect deep convection chances to be minimal with
most activity more likely to be low-topped in nature.

The aforementioned surface low will shift further offshore on
Tuesday as it shifts across the northern Bahamas with a large fetch
of northeasterly flow continuing to bring bands of showers and
occasional storms into the east coast in the morning before rain
chances increase to the west later in the day. This should result in
similar weather conditions tomorrow compared to today with rain
chances generally increasing from northeast to southwest, but it
appears the main difference will be the northeasterly flow will not
be quite as strong with the pressure gradient relaxing just
enough as the low pulls further offshore. As a result, this may
allow for the Gulf sea breeze to push inland just enough to add a
bit more surface convergence tomorrow to support some deeper
convection later in the day, though mid level lapse remain poor so
this potential should still be limited. Should any deeper
convection materialize, the deep moisture in place will also favor
the possibility of locally heavy rainfall as PWATs will be around
2" or more especially for central and southern portions of the
area so WPC has a Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall in place for
from just north of I-4 southward.

The unsettled weather pattern continues mid to late week as the
stationary frontal boundary remains in place across the southern
Gulf waters and across south Florida with waves of low pressure
riding along the boundary at times. Meanwhile, a potent upper level
low drops into the Great Lakes region late Wednesday into Thursday
and this feature will allow troughing to persist across much of the
Eastern US with westerly flow aloft remaining across Florida. As
deep moisture remains in place from I-4 southward, daily rain
chances will continue but the pressure gradient continues to weaken
later in the week so the sea breeze should be able to spread more
inland, though overall coverage should be less across the Nature
Coast as drier air spreads just south enough into some of our
northern zones.

The persistent Eastern US trough finally then starts to shift out of
the area as mid level ridging builds in from the Atlantic for the
weekend. As this occurs, the aforementioned strong upper low
around the Great Lakes carves out a strong cold front that is
forecast to move offshore of much of the Eastern Seaboard by the
weekend with front possibly dropping into northern Florida, though
it may stall to the north of the state entirely. Thus, our area is
expected to remain on the warm and humid side of this feature with
daily rain chances continuing this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through tonight with
conditions possibly approaching Small Craft Advisory for a brief
period across the northern Gulf waters, though the duration looks
rather limited so will maintain small craft exercise cautions
conditions. NE winds should fall below 15 kts on Tuesday before
weakening further into mid to late week as the pressure gradient
relaxes. In addition, seas will also gradually subside throughout
the week with 2-4 foot seas through tonight across northern marine
waters before falling to 2 ft or less by Tuesday evening and will
continue to gradually less into late week. Otherwise, daily
chances for showers and storms will persist throughout the week
with highest rain chances across central and southern Gulf waters
at times as deeper moisture lingers in these areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Scattered showers will push through the area this evening from
the northeast as weak low pressure system south of Cape Canaveral
shifts southward along the east coast. Northeasterly winds remain
in place on Tuesday with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms developing across the east coast Tuesday morning
and spreading inland towards the western side of the Florida
peninsula later in the day. Some drier air starts to spread
southward into portions of the Nature Coast by mid week but
minimum RH values will remain well above critical levels as daily
rain chances continue through the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  90  77 /  40  10  50  20
FMY  91  75  91  76 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  89  75  91  74 /  50  10  60  10
SRQ  90  74  90  74 /  40  20  50  30
BKV  89  71  89  71 /  40  10  40  10
SPG  88  76  88  76 /  40  20  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn