Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
638 FXUS62 KTBW 262359 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 659 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally dense fog late tonight/early Thursday morning - Hazardous boating conditions on Thursday through Saturday with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed. - Much cooler and drier conditions expected late Thursday through Saturday morning. && .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... Issued at 643 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 A cold front currently near the Big Bend of Florida will move across the forecast area tonight and early Thursday. Can`t rule out an isolated shower, with the best chance north. Although there`s considerable high cloudiness over the region, high dew point air overriding the waters of the eastern Gulf will likely cause sea fog to develop tonight over portions of the coastal waters ahead of the front...and will be locally dense. The fog will spread onshore late tonight mainly south of Crystal River. As the front pushes south overnight and early Thursday morning, the fog will lift as the drier air and northerly winds behind the front cause the fog to mix out...and a low ceiling may persist for several hours. Gusty north winds will develop Thursday afternoon as the much cooler drier air advects over the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 A cold front over the panhandle will push through the area overnight and through the morning hours on Thanksgiving. A few showers will be possible along the Nature Coast ahead of the front but most of us will stay dry. This front will bring much cooler air for the next few days. We will still wake up in the 60`s Thanksgiving morning but the cold air filtering in will keep temperatures in the 70`s during the afternoon hours. Friday will be our coldest morning with lows in the 40`s for most of us. Winds will also remain around 10 mph which will bring feels like temperatures down into the 30`s for areas north of I-4. Highs on Friday will be stuck in the 60`s. We will have another cold morning on Saturday but warmer air will quickly start to move back in during the day on Saturday and Sunday. We can expect highs back into the low to mid 80`s by Sunday afternoon. This quick warm up is all due to another cold front which will end up stalling to our north through next Tuesday. This mean the start of next work week will feel very similiar to the last few days with lows in the 60`s and highs in the low to mid 80`s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 Locally dense fog will develop late tonight with LCL LIFR VSBYs/CIGs vcnty all terminals. The fog will lift around sunrise at the central terminals of TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ...and an hour or so later at PGD/RSW/FMY. VFR CIGs will persist the remainder of the morning and afternoon...with skies becoming SKC around or shortly after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 A cold front is expected to push through overnight and into the early morning hours on Thanksgiving. Just ahead of the front we will see warm and moist air which could bring some sea fog to the Tampa Bay Area overnight. This fog will lift quickly in the morning hours however winds will also be picking up quickly too. We are expecting hazardous boating conditions throughout much of our extended weekend with winds around 15 to 25 knots starting Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Small Craft Advisory will be likely issued for that time frame. Winds do start to come down slowly on Sunday and will be around 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 A cold front is expected to push through during the early morning hours on Thanksgiving. Ahead of it we could see some patchy fog mainly south of I-4. After that we will see some drier air filtering in with critical RHs along the Nature Coast on Thanksgiving and across the whole area on Friday. However, winds will be below critical levels so Red Flag is not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 65 75 47 / 0 10 10 0 FMY 85 68 81 50 / 0 10 10 0 GIF 85 64 75 44 / 0 10 20 0 SRQ 83 66 76 49 / 0 10 10 0 BKV 83 57 72 36 / 0 30 10 0 SPG 81 67 74 52 / 0 10 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming